Legendary Iowa Caucus Pollster Puts DeSantis in the Ballgame, Despite Sizable Trump Lead: ‘Closer Than it May First Seem’

A renowned Iowa pollster has just released her first survey of the 2024 campaign. And amid a series of great polls for former President Donald Trump, the new numbers of Iowa seem to leave the door open — if only slightly — for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).

According to a new poll from the Des Moines Register and NBC News, Trump does hold a significant lead — but it is nowhere near as large as the 46 point cushion one new survey found he holds nationally. The poll shows Ron DeSantis in second with 19 percent, followed by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) with 9 percent, former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley tied at 6 percent, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 5 percent.

But J. Ann Selzer, the famed Iowa pollster who put out the new numbers, told the Des Moines Register her findings indicate the race is “closer than it may first seem.” That’s because in the Iowa caucus, a voter’s second place choice matters — as caucusgoers are asked to pick another candidate, if their first choice does not receive enough support. And as the Register notes, “sixty-three percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses or are actively considering him. That footprint is on par with the 61 percent who say the same for DeSantis.”

Breaking down the numbers at the big board on MSNBC Monday, Steve Kornacki — who called the Selzer poll the “gold standard” — pointed out another metric in the Florida governor’s favor.

“We have more than half of Republicans in this poll saying their minds are not made up yet,” Kornacki noted.

Watch above, via MSNBC.