NEW POLL: Overturning Roe More Likely to Help Democrats Than Republicans — By Double

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Democrats stand to gain significantly if the draft Supreme Court decision that was leaked to Politico Monday night overturning Roe v. Wade goes into effect.

According to a YouGov poll published this week, the overturning of constitutionally protected abortion rights is twice as likely to activate Democratic voters in the midterms as it is Republicans.

Respondents to the poll were asked “If the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote in the next Congressional elections in November?”

Among Democrats, 47 percent said they are “More likely” to vote in the midterms if Roe is overturned, with 42 percent responding “No change” and only 1 percent answering “Less likely.”

For Republicans, only 25 percent said they are “More likely” to vote in the midterms if Roe is overturned, with 60 percent responding “No change” and 4 percent answering “Less likely.”

Among independents, 27 percent said they are “More likely” to vote in the midterms if Roe is overturned, with 54 percent responding “No change” and only 6 percent answering “Less likely.”

And to the extent that the decision helps with independent voters, it figures to help Democrats more since 55 percent of that group wants abortion to be legal in all or most cases.

Respondents were also asked “What effect do you think Roe v. Wade being overturned would have on November’s Congressional elections?” and by more than a two-to-one margin (43% to 19%), they said it will help Democrats.

And by a two-to-one margin, respondents to the poll said abortion policy will determine their vote.

When asked “Would you vote for or against a candidate just on the basis of their position on the abortion issue?”, 51 percent responded that they would, with 25 percent responding “no” and the remainder “not sure.”

Democrats were most likely to respond “yes” at 54 percent, with Republicans at 52 percent and independents at 40 percent.

Time will tell how polling data like this translates into actual votes in November.