Poll Persistently Showing Biden Up Now Has Trump Ahead 4 Points Nationally
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday, one day before former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden go toe-to-toe in Thursday night’s debate, suggests that Trump has taken a shocking four-point lead nationally.
According to Quinnipiac, Trump has the support of 49% of registered voters, including leaners, while Biden gets just 45%. Both candidates get roughly the same proportion of voters from their own parties, but Trump has a 10-point advantage with independents (51%-41%).
When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included among respondents’ options, Kennedy gets 11% of the vote and Trump’s margin of victory over Biden balloons to six points (43%-37%).
Respondents were asked questions during live interviews on their landlines or cell phones between June 20 and 24.
The results (which carry a margin of error of +/- 2.6 points) are particularly notable given the history of the Quinnipiac poll. As The Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake pointed out online, “Quinnipiac has shown Biden tied or leading pretty much the whole cycle.”
Quinnipiac has shown Biden tied or leading pretty much the whole cycle.
It now shows Trump +4 — it’s most pro-Trump numbers yet. pic.twitter.com/s9KEeMwCjB
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) June 26, 2024
In fact, of the 17 polls conducted by it since February 2023, Trump has come out on top in just two of them, with his last “win” coming in November of last year. The poll comes on the heels of the news that acclaimed elections analyst Nate Silver believes that Trump has about a 66% chance of winning the election, based on his newly released model.
The latest Quinnipiac poll also found that 73% of respondents intent to watch the debate on Thursday, but also that just 16% are “open to the possibility” of changing their minds about who to vote for based on the performances of the candidates in the debates.
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy argued that the results suggested that “a change of heart or a dramatic shift in loyalty” after the first debate is “not likely when it comes to Biden and Trump supporters.”
“But those currently supporting RFK, Jr. are a different story,” he added.
