Poll Shows Trump Tied with Biden in Minnesota, Would be First Republican President to Win State in 48 Years

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A new survey shows former Vice President Joe Biden statistically tied with President Donald Trump among Minnesotans likely to vote in the 2020 presidential election.

The survey, conducted from August 15-18, found 46.5 percent of respondents indicating they plan to vote for Trump compared to 46.9 percent who plan to vote for Biden.  The survey, which included 1,141 participants, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.98 percent.

The Georgia-based polling firm weights its surveys for “social desirability bias,” taking into account the idea that some Trump voters are afraid to be honest with pollsters. It was also one of the only polling firms to correctly predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.

If Trump were to win Minnesota, it would be the first time any Republican running for president has carried the state since former President Richard Nixon won it in it 1972. Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota by 1.5 percent in 2016. However, the state has become more Republican in recent years: Hillary Clinton won it by just 1.5 percent of the vote in 2016, down from 2012 — when former President Barack Obama won by 8 percent — and 2008, when Obama won by 10 percent.

A survey conducted by Emerson Polling a week before Biden’s announcement that Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) would serve as his running mate found Biden with a stronger lead, with 50 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him compared to 47 percent who said they would vote for Trump. The same survey showed Republicans within three points of flipping the state’s Democratic Senate seat held by Sen. Tina Smith. Trafalgar’s poll didn’t ask respondents about that race.