’17-Point Net Shift’: Kornacki on Why Race to Replace MTG in Congress Is Another Bad Sign for the GOP

Screenshot via NBC News

NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki broke down the key takeaway from Tuesday night’s special election results in the race to replace retired Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).

The election in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District ended with the Democrat, retired brigadier general Shawn Harris, as the top voter-getter, while Trump-endorsed Republican Clay Fuller came in a close second. The GOP, however, had 12 candidates in the field in a district President Donald Trump won by 37 points in 2024. Harris and Fuller, a district attorney in northwest Georgia, will advance to the run-off, where Fuller is the heavy favorite.

Kornacki explained the results are still a window into the GOP’s tough road ahead of the midterms:

With just about all votes counted, the cumulative results for GA-14 are:

Republican candidates: 59.7%
Democratic candidates: 39.7%
Other candidates: 0.6%

He then added, “The GOP +20 margin represents a 17-point net shift toward the Dems relative to 2024 — in line with the 13 to 22-point net shifts seen in previous House specials.”

He included a chart showing the most recent special elections illustrating the trend.

Jacob Rubashkin, the deputy editor at Inside Elections, also tracked the Hispanic vote on Tuesday night, which has been a key demographic turning away from the GOP in recent elections. Rubashkin found a massive swing of over 40 points in multiple precincts in favor of Democrats:

Counting in Whitfield Co. is all done.

The most Hispanic precincts and how they voted in 2024 vs tonight:

5A (64% Hispanic CVAP): Kamala +21, Dems +74
6A (69%): Kamala +23, Dems +64
AN (48%): Trump +14, Dems +30
ES (39%): Trump +41, GOP +4
GL (32%): Trump +39, GOP +13

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