Fetterman Leads Oz By 5 Points As Oz Favorability Languishes at 38 Percent: New Poll
A new CNN poll out Monday shows Democrat John Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz by 5 points in the key U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania.
The poll shows Fetterman, the sitting lieutenant governor of the state, with his widest lead since a USA Today poll in late September.
More importantly, the CNN poll is only one of three since polling in the race began back in June, to show Fetterman above 50 percent in the state.
The poll conducted by SSRS, shows Fetterman winning 51% to 46% among 703 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.6 percent.
Buried in the cross tabs is some additional bad news from Oz.
When polled on whether or not respondents view the candidates favorably or unfavorably, Oz’s struggles in the state became clear. Fetterman maintains a 48/46 percent favorability/unfavorability ratio, while Oz is underwater at 38/55 favorability/unfavorability.
Oz does, however, hold an edge with independents in the poll, which could prove crucial on election day.
“Independents do break in Oz’s favor, with 54% backing him, as do White voters without a college degree (56%). The two run about evenly among men (51% Fetterman, 48% Oz) and older voters (50% Fetterman, 46% Oz among those 45 or older) while Fetterman leads among younger voters (53% Fetterman, 43% Oz among those younger than 45), women (52% Fetterman, 43% Oz) and White voters who hold a college degree (59% Fetterman, 38% Oz),” notes the poll’s summary.
Oz’s biggest struggle is perhaps with GOP voters. “Democrats have largely consolidated around Fetterman: 97% back him. But Republicans are not as unified in their support of Oz: 86% back him,” the summary explains, pointing out a soft spot for the Trump-backed Republican.
The survey also looked at the gubernatorial race and found Democrat Josh Shapiro leading Republican Doug Mastriano 56 to 41 percent – a whopping 15-point advantage.
RealClearPolitics projects an Oz victory, as the poll aggregator adds in a 4-point GOP underestimation in polls in the state and Fetterman is only leading by 2.2 percent in the average of polls. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, however, still forecasts a Fetterman victory, although the race is pegged at 49.5 percent, 48.3 percent odds for Fetterman and Oz – respectively.
