Frank Luntz Says Trump’s Big Lie Could Cost GOP in 2022: He ‘Single-Handedly May Cause People not to Vote’

Scott Olson/Getty Images

On the latest episode of The New York Times’ Sway podcast, Sway, pollster and former Republican Frank Luntz told host Kara Swisher that the GOP’s Big Lie about the 2020 election could hurt the party in the 2022 midterms.

Historically, midterm elections have been brutal affairs for the sitting president’s party — not that of his predecessor. Only twice in the last century – in 1934 and 2002 – has the incumbent’s party gained seats in both the House and the Senate in a midterm election. Making matters more difficult for President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party is the upcoming congressional redistricting, whereby some states will redraw their congressional districts in accordance with 2020 Census data, sometimes in gerrymandered fashion. That responsibility is the purview of the state legislatures (or independent redistricting commissions they’ve designated), most of which are controlled entirely by Republicans.

But, says Luntz, Democrats may have something working in their favor that no other incumbent party has had: Donald Trump’s false claim that the previous election was stolen.

“I haven’t said this before,” said Luntz, “This could cost the Republicans the majority in the House in 2022.”

He offered his reasoning.

What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it’s not worth it to vote. Donald Trump single-handedly may cause people not to vote. And he may be the greatest tool in the Democrats’ arsenal to keep control of the House and Senate in 2022. If the Republicans lose the majority [that many expect them to gain] in the House, they will lay the blame at the feet of Donald Trump for telling people it’s not worth it to vote. Am I being clear?

Since his defeat in November, Trump has alleged the election was rigged against him. Both statistical and anecdotal evidence suggest this lie hurt the two Republican Senate candidates in Georgia’s runoff elections. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution found that voter turnout dropped most severely in the Republican strongholds of northwest and south Georgia.

Said one 61-year-old Georgian, “What good would it have done to vote? They have votes that got changed. I don’t know if I’ll ever vote again.”