Trump’s Endorsement Sends GOP’s Odds Plummeting in Texas Senate Race — Democrat Briefly Jumps in Lead on Prediction Markets

(Photos via: Ashley Landis and Jacquelyn Martin for AP)

The Texas Senate race is suddenly neck-and-neck between the Republicans and Democrats after President Donald Trump endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), according to the top prediction markets.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket showed the GOP’s odds of winning the Senate seat took a pretty decent shot to the gut right after Trump made his endorsement on Tuesday. Kalshi even posted that Democrat James Talarico briefly jumped ahead of the Republicans and was favored to win.

Kalshi now gives Talarico a 49% chance of winning in November — up roughly 3% from yesterday; that’s also a healthy jump from where he was at the start of May, when Kalshi bettors gave him a 44% shot at winning.

Meanwhile, the GOP’s odds took a hit, falling to 48% at one point immediately after Trump’s announcement. That rebounded a bit and is currently at 51% on Kalshi, but that is still down big from the 57.2% chance Republicans had earlier this month.

The reaction was similar on Kalshi’s rival Polymarket.

Republicans dropped from a 55% chance of winning the election on Monday to 51% on Tuesday afternoon. Talarico’s odds surged during that time from a low of 42% on Tuesday morning to briefly taking the lead with 51% right after Trump’s endorsement; those odds have dropped to 49% for Talarico by 3:15 p.m. ET.

Trump officially endorsed Paxton by calling him a “true MAGA Warrior”who supports his plan to terminate the filibuster, among other ideas he likes. Paxton, who has long been plagued by corruption and infidelity scandals, is widely seen as the weaker GOP candidate, but in a deep red state.

“The Highly Respected Attorney General of Texas, Ken Paxton, an America First Patriot, and someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT, is running for the United States Senate, to represent a place I love and WON, BIG, three times, with 6.4 Million Votes in 2024 (The Most Votes in the History of the State, BY FAR)!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Vice President JD Vance told reporters on Tuesday afternoon that Cornyn’s non-endorsement showed what happens when Republican lawmakers are “out of step with voters — or out of step with the president.”

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