Comebacks? Unlikely. Frontrunners Clinton, Trump Bound to Win Big in Tomorrow’s Primaries

Heading into last week’s New York primary, there was a widespread assumption that each of the party frontrunners would walk away victorious. In this case — unlike with states like Michigan and Wisconsin before it — the polls proved to be correct; former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won a decisive Democratic victory by outmaneuvering her Brooklyn-born competitor, while Donald Trump took home the lion’s share of delegates in the Empire State.

The wins for both Clinton and Trump moved the needle closer to the next phase of the 2016 cycle, the one where political media as a whole speculates rampantly on VP picks (“Will Clinton choose Warren?!” No, she won’t, stop) and the conservative base has largely fallen into a comatose malaise about a Trump nomination. It would appear as if the Clinton camp has avoided a disastrous second act to their 2008 debacle, while Trump’s stranglehold over delegates — and his 2.3 million more popular votes than Ted Cruz — indicates he is skating to an unlikely nomination.

But there are still many states yet to hold their primaries; Bernie Sanders for one has said, “We intend to take the fight all the way to California,” a state primary that won’t hold its voting until June 7th, despite the fact that the math is not in the Democratic-Socialist’s favor. Meanwhile the caboose candidates in the GOP are stuffing their faces and trying to make deals in a moon shot’s hope at a contested Cleveland convention. Tomorrow, five separate states — Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maryland — hold their primaries. Sanders, Cruz, and Kasich are in dire need of slowing the momentum of the surging frontrunners tomorrow.

The polls, however, tell the story of a (likely) different outcome. Here’s a look at the Real Clear Politics polling data spreads for the five states before their voters head to the polls tomorrow:

CONNECTICUT
Donald Trump +26.0 (28 possible delegates)
Hillary Clinton +5.6 (55 possible delegates)

PENNSYLVANIA
Donald Trump +19.4 (17 possible delegates)
Hillary Clinton +14.0 (189 possible delegates)

MARYLAND
Donald Trump +14.0 (38 possible delegates)
Hillary Clinton +24.0 (95 possible delegates)

DELAWARE
Donald Trump +37.0 (16 possible delegates)
[Democratic primary information unavailable] (21 possible delegates)

RHODE ISLAND
Donald Trump +25.5 (19 possible delegates)
Clinton +2.5 (24 possible delegates)

The first picture that emerges is that even though the states taking part in tomorrow’s primary — infuriatingly referred to by many in cable as “Super Tuesday 4” — is that the margin on the right is far wider than for the Democrats. Sure, Clinton is leading in all of the states, but her smaller margin still demonstrates the populist appeal of the Vermont Senator despite the current delegate count.

Also, as Sanders supporters will be quick to remind you, the former Secretary of State held a seemingly insurmountable lead heading into Michigan (+22.0 according to RCP averages). Sanders won in an upset.

Moving beyond tomorrow’s all-consuming primaries are states like Indiana and California — and both are leaning Trump/Clinton as well. Of course, those polls will be subject to change depending on the outcome of Tuesday’s figures, but the likelihood of Clinton and Trump continuing their dominance is high.

—

J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) is a columnist at Mediaite.
[image via Wikipedia Commons]

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.