Sarah Palin Can Win In 2012 As Long As No One Asks Her Hard Questions

After last weekend’s appearance at the Tea Party Convention more than one person came to the conclusion that a 2012 run for Sarah Palin was less the punchline (enter the hand) for a joke than an increasing reality.

Leaving aside Palin’s incredible mastery at the art of the soundbite, and her undeniably popular appeal, and the celebrity aura she manages to generate while expounding on the general betterness of “real” Americans, is it possible for Sarah Palin to actually win an election in 2012? Numbers genius Nate Silver crunches…well…numbers and comes up with some extremely wonky but very interesting scenarios, which he explains in detail here. The general conclusion, and there are a lot of variables, is that Palin has a solid chance at getting the GOP nomination as long as no one asks too many detailed questions about anything (something which no one appears to be doing at the moment). Some interesting notes on the factors weighing into how Silver weighted the variables:

• Palin spent a great deal of time campaigning in exurban and fairly rural areas in 2008, and I suspect that it’s here — not necessarily among soccer moms in the collar suburbs — where her most enthusiastic voters lie.
• No college voters: Early polls of the 2012 Republican field, such as from Marist and Rasmussen, show Palin overperforming among this group (or, if you prefer, underperforming among college graduates), which certainly squares with my intuition about where her appeal lies.
• White Evangelicals: Although Palin also polls well among this group, a lot of this may be because a lot of white evangelicals are also rural and lack a college degree — that is, although Palin runs well among evangelicals, it may not be because they’re evangelicals. Nor, although Palin has increasingly invoked religious rhetoric in her speeches, does she have the scholarly religious credibility of someone like a Mike Huckabee or a Pat Robertson. It’s conceivable that Palin could get outflanked by a Huckabee or lose votes to a Santorum among voters who are evangelicals first and working-class whites second.
• Although this is a bit speculative, we look at the percentage of McCain voters in each state who said their votes were determined because of energy or terrorism policy, which appear as though they’ll be Palin’s core issues. These issues — particularly terrorism — lend themselves relatively well to the meta-narratives that Palin prefers and require less policy nuance than something like the economy or health care.
  
  

  And some primary scenarios:

  Although Iowa is not a perfect match for her — not quite as many no-college voters as she’d like — it holds a caucus rather than a primary, which tends to bring out a more conservative electorate. The most obvious concern for Palin in Iowa, if he runs, is Mike Huckabee, who won there in 2008. She could also conceivably lose a war of attrition if a candidate like Santorum eats away some of her evangelical vote, or if her organization and infrastructure is not up to par. The inclusion of a regional candidate like John Thune or Mike Pence could cut either way for Palin; they are not yet terribly well defined and it’s unclear whether they’ll run to the right-center.

  And the perfect plan:

  Win Iowa. Win South Carolina. Clean up in orange states. You probably have enough momentum to survive the consolidation of the GOP field which is liable to occur at this point.

  Get ready to hear one or all of these theories expounded on by the various sides, depending — politicos love their numbers! Also, there is a lot more where this came from.
  
  A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math [Nate Silver]

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  filed under
  2012 Election, Mike Huckabee, Nate Silver, Rick Santorum, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin 2012, Tea Partiers, Tea Party Convention
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  • The Real Royal King

    I reviewed the Q&A from the little gathering over the weekend. It was awful, wasn’t it? The Drop Out Governor simply cannot answer a question. Any question. Odd.

  • same2u

    What is it about extremely stupid ,shallow people that draws Republicans to them?

  • writer

    I hear there’s a video making the rounds of Palin getting into her car. This woman is a comedic gold mine.

  • writer

    At least Palin doesn’t look like a slutty stewardess, like that Michelle Obama. Oh, wait a minute. That comment was made by Letterman about Palin. If he’d said it about Michelle, it would be racist and unfunny. Oops.

  • The Real Royal King

    Same2u says:
    February 10, 2010 at 11:27 am

    What is it about extremely stupid ,shallow people that draws Republicans to them?

    —

    Comfort in not being challenged.

  • writer

    Sort of like Obama shouldn’t be challenged by anyone white.

  • http://www.sailrabbits.com Magister

    I just commented on Mr. Silver’s analysis on another website, so it’s not like I’m lacking an opinion about the politics, but I’m failing to see the media angle of this post.

  • liberalontogeny

    @Magister

    You already know the reason to your media angle post.

    $$$$$$$$narrative

  • http://www.sailrabbits.com Magister

    @liberalontogeny: Pageviews are king, but if I could be so bold as to ask a somewhat media-related question along the lines of a potential Palin candidacy…

    Reportedly, FNC is building a television studio onto her Wasilla house; Will Fox retain ownership of the studio and lease the space from the Palins, or will it be her studio to do with as she wishes and it does not count as a campaign contribution because she’s currently not running for any office?

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Bill-Adkins/1585417987 Bill Adkins

    “Sarah Palin Can Win In 2012 As Long As No One Asks Her Hard Questions”

    So she can win if she only responds to questions from Fox Not News Channel – good strategy for her. As to the issue of racism and Republicans, why hasn’t Mediaite addressed Michael Steele’s assertion that he’s getting flack for his leadership of the GOP from racists?

  • http://lauriebethsgrotto.wordpress.com Laurie Beth

    @ Magister “Reportedly, FNC is building a television studio onto her Wasilla house”

    Wait, really? Wow.

  • http://www.sailrabbits.com Magister

    PS) I don’t think Ms. Palin will run in 2012, but if she does, I think I’ve asked a legitimate question.

  • Ted

    writer – I thought the funniest part of the video was when she had to ask her hand for instructions on how to open the car door…and the hand got it wrong!! Priceless.

  • http://www.sailrabbits.com Magister

    @Laurie Beth: There’s been a lot of blog mentions concerning the planned studio, but the most legitimate one that I can pull from quick Google is in the lede paragraph of this NYTimes piece.

    And, before anybody hits me with politics — How would you feel if pre-’08, MSNBC had given Obama a television studio?

  • ImNotBlue

    Magister says:
    February 10, 2010 at 12:59 pm

    A “station” like that probably consists of a camera, backdrop, two lights, and a mini-switcher. Throw in a small satellite dish, and you’ve got a “station.” I know… we’ve got one at the office… it’s tiny and used for uplinks to the networks, and that’s all you really need.

    Odds are, buying that kind of equipment for her, is a lot cheaper (and greener, for those who care) than sending her somewhere to do remote hits (like an equipped local television station), or flying her into NYC. Just business sense, IMO.

    …why hasn’t Mediaite addressed Michael Steele’s assertion that he’s getting flack for his leadership of the GOP from racists?

    Because (1) it’s not a “media” story, and (2) we already know the left is full of racists (see yourself, Royal, etc), especially when it comes to minorities who don’t tow the left-wing line. Hope that helps, Bill ol’ pal.

  • The Real Royal King

    Here’s the media angle. Ever since the Drop Out Governor embarrassed herself on Couric, the Sister Sarah Shriekers have been whining about how unfair, how slanted, how mean Couric us. Yet, the Drop Out Governor goes before the friendliest, most supportive of interviewers and completely flub and flounders a soft ball Q&A. We now having a most interesting analysis by 2008′s most accurate pollster and analyst which suggests that the Drop Out Governor is wholly unable to deal with questions. Seems to me that clearly establishes that the disaster on Couric was the fault not of Couric but of the train wreck Drop Out Governor.

  • ImNotBlue

    Magister says:
    February 10, 2010 at 1:17 pm

    How would you feel if pre-’08, MSNBC had given Obama a television studio?

    Well… your pretense is false.

    1- Palin is a paid contributor or FNC, so their status is different. Whether she can use the “station” for other network’s interviews, is a good question.

    and

    2- Obama didn’t live in the middle of no-where Alaska, so the necessity is different.

  • http://www.sailrabbits.com Magister

    @ImNotBlue: I agree that there’s probably not much to it. My question is whether FNC will own the equipment or will it be hers to use toward communicating with other groups, broadcasting speeches and other press availabilities to non-FNC organizations and will she get to keep it, if she announces a run?

  • The Real Royal King

    No, I suspect there is something to it. If the Drop Out Governor knows of ethical precept, she will break it.

    More seriously, however, the question about non-FOX organizations is excellent. I hadn’t considered that.

  • http://www.sailrabbits.com Magister

    @ImNotBlue: PS) According to Google, it’s 43 miles from Wasilla to Anchorage and though I don’t have a quick link, I believe some of Alaska’s previous pork established commuter rail.

  • ImNotBlue

    Magister says:
    February 10, 2010 at 1:24 pm

    That IS an interesting question. Could be in her contract that they had to build the uplink, but she owns it. Kinda like a perk of sorts. Keep your eyes open if you see anything official.

    The Real Royal King says:
    February 10, 2010 at 1:28 pm

    Who?

    Magister says:
    February 10, 2010 at 1:29 pm

    43 miles? That’s pretty far for a 5 minute interview. And sure there’s a rail, but is taking the train for an hour or more (and then back again) worth it for 5 minutes worth of work?

  • tommyd

    yeah, maybe the lame stream media can interrogate her to the extent they dove head on into Obama’s background leading up to the 2008 elections……

    oh wait,, I just remembered, the MSM has already focused 10 fold the attention to Palin’s background and family as they did to obiewan’s past,, which they are scared to dig into..
    example, look at the extreme the media went to fact check her book,,, care to tell me how much time they spent fact checking obama’s 2 books??

    And tell me just what has all that attention focused on Palin accomplished? ….nothing much has it. The only thing they can continually come up with is opinionated personal attacks… You never hear much discussion of her documented work in Alaska do you.. wonder why that is?? humm .. must not fit into the leftist msm’s agenda I guess..

    There is a treasure trove of dirt on obiewan,,, the leftist yellow dog msm is simply scared and to agenda oriented to pursue much of it.

    To quote a real news person in reference to today’s MSM:

    “It’s not your business model that sucks, It’s you that suck.”

  • Zakk

    Palin as President. That would be a bit of a lateral move wouldn’t it America.

  • The Real Royal King

    Thanks, Tom My D. It’s always good to learn of yet another conspiracy.

  • tommyd

    Hey Royal K, I will add this.
    I do not believe Palin is qualified to be president. I also do not think Obama was or is qualified. (technically yes I know they are)
    I do think she could be a great VP. Yes I know the chance is a VP might be forced to assume the position of POTUS, but really how often does that happen….not often.

  • Ben Linus

    So, Nate is a genius until he tries to figure out what killed Obama’s approval numbers

    I don’t understand the point of this article. If she runs in 2012, she WILL be asked a lot of hard questions, so the only point of writing this article is to insult her. There are plenty of liberal blogs out there for an article like this, I would like to think mediate is above this kind of thing.
    Don’t get me wrong, I think Palin running for President would be a disaster. Yes, I’m one of those Republicans against Palin. I think Zakk is right, Palin as President would be a lateral move. The love cult on the right that surrounds Palin is no different than the love cult that surrounded Obama during the election. It’s funny hearing my fellow Republicans go on about the “cult of Obama” but they completely miss (or ignore) the cult-like love they have for Palin.

  • DEO

    So it says that Palin has the stupid vote…
    oh, shit, I was being condescending and mean.

    I guess i should say, “YAY Palin is taking her “ABANDON ALL HOPE” show on the road!!!!! Sign me up!”

  • writer

    So much hatred and energy devoted to a woman who the left claims has no chance of ever holding office. Almost seems demented.

  • The Real Royal King

    “YAY Palin is taking her “ABANDON ALL HOPE” show on the road!!!!!

    —

    She does have a Mad as Hell Zell Miller quality about her, doesn’t she? I think that’s why so many (White) Tea Partiers are such large people. They eat out of a sense of desperation and despair.

  • writer

    There are no fat (Black) people.