Nate Silver Says Trump Win in Florida Triples Chances to Win Presidency: ‘First Step Toward a Trump Upset’
With President Donald Trump’s projected victory from Decision Desk HQ in the battleground state of Florida, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver tripled Trump’s chances to win the presidency. Still, Vice President Joe Biden is a favorite.
Before the election, Silver gave Biden an 90% chance to win the presidency — a number near where most other outlets were with projections before results came in Tuesday night. FiveThirtyEight also gave Biden a 69% chance to win Florida.
With Trump’s projected victory, Biden’s advantaged shrunk to 66%, giving Trump a 33% of winning the election at the time, according to Silver’s model.
If Florida goes to Trump, though, his chances of winning the Electoral College would go up to 33%.
If we wins Georgia, his chances would go to 38%. If he won North Carolina, the race would still be a toss-up.
The candidate who then won Pennsylvania would be the heavy favorite. https://t.co/JLQWdqg1Mp
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 4, 2020
“He’s at 10%, it’s going to shoot way up if he wins Florida,” Silver said referring to Trump’s pre-election chances. “A little bit of time to calculate here, but Trump, if he wins Florida is much more in the running. It’s a one in three chance of winning overall.”
“The one silver lining for Biden a bit is this seems to be mostly concentrated among Cubans in south Florida,” Silver noted.” It might not translate to other parts of the country, but Florida would be the first step toward a Trump upset.”
Earlier in the week, Silver said of the 2020 election that “a Trump win is plausible” but “a 2016-style polling error wouldn’t be enough for Trump to win.”
Watch above, via ABC.
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