Stunning New Poll Shows Trump With Narrow Lead — In New Hampshire

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

A stunning new survey out of New Hampshire indicates that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has a narrow, 50.2%-49.8% lead over his Democratic counterpart, Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to the poll of 622 registered voters conducted by Praecones Analytica on behalf of the New Hampshire Journal between October 24-26, Trump could be poised to pull off an upset in a state he has never won before. In 2016, Trump came within .37 of a point of beating Hillary Clinton in the Granite State, but in 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump easily, 52.71%-45.36%.

“There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told the New Hampshire Journal. “To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever.

While the poll comes with the caveat of a 3.93% margin of error, its movement towards Trump tracks with broader polling trends acrost the country. According to elections analyst Nate Silver, every swing state has seen Trump gain over the course of the last month and nationally, Trump is doing 1.9% better than he was a month ago.

While Biden’s victory in New Hampshire was never in doubt in 2020, Trump did outperform his poll numbers significant. Biden b0asted an 11.1% lead in the polls heading into election day, per FiveThirtyEight.

Trump may be buoyed on the ballot this year by Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte, who consistently outperforms her Democratic opponent in polls.

The former president has also been endorsed by incumbent Governor Chris Sununu, who had been an outspoken critic of Trump during the presidential primary.