CNN’s Harry Enten Breaks Down What Happens If Trump Outperforms Polls By Just 1%: ‘Closest Campaign in a Generation’

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down what he called the “closest campaign in a generation” on Friday morning, warning that if former President Donald Trump outperforms the polls by just 1%, he will reclaim the White House.

After calling the presidential race “historically close,” Enten noted that neither Trump nor Vice President Kamala Harris have sustained a 5-point lead for at least three weeks. He then dove into an average of polls in the seven battleground states expected to decide the election.

“Look at the 2020 final margin and average across these seven states: It was Biden plus 0.9 points. You don’t think that could get any closer? We can, in fact, get closer. Look right now, Kamala Harris up, but look at this, by just 0.6 points on average, only about half a point, 6/10 of a point. My goodness gracious, that is how tight we are talking right now across the seven battleground states,” said Enten.

You look at this, you go ‘Oh, 0.3%, then, you know, the they’re basically the same.’ but you’re talking about actual vote margins that were so small. So show us the difference that a polling margin can make,” replied John Berman.

“So let’s just say the polls match up perfectly to what the results end up being. Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 246. But let’s just say we move the current polls and let’s say the result differs by them by a single percentage point and Donald Trump is the beneficiary of it. Look at this: If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and look at this, Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes,” explained Enten. “Because the bottom line is Pennsylvania would flip up here and you would also get this flip out in Nevada over here.”

“And that, my friends, is what we’re talking about,” he concluded. “We are talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world. John, this is a truly exciting race right now where any slight movement can make all the difference in the world.”

Watch above via CNN.