‘Down He Goes!’ CNN Data Guru Warns Trump’s Polling Collapse Is Destroying Vance’s 2028 Chances

CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s polling collapse “into the abyss” is now destroying Vice President JD Vance’s chances of becoming the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.

Enten began his regular segment with a look at the president’s net approval ratings, describing his polling as being “in a steady fall” and showing “no sign of rising.” The nosedrive, he indicated, was one not just prompted by the ongoing conflict with Iran but subject to a “slew of events” that have “continuously dropped” his figures.

“You know, you go back to last year when he was sworn in for a second term,” the analyst said, pointing at the big board and moving across the 2025 quarterly increments, “He was at plus six points [in January], then minus three points a year ago [in April], minus seven points nine months ago, minus ten points on October 2025. January 2026, -13 points. And now all the way down to -18 points. A term two low.”

He added: “And what is so key to point out here is let’s just say that somehow we got out of the Iran war tomorrow, yeah, it might climb a little bit, but we have seen this steady, slow or steady and dropping number that just seems no sign of rising.”

Comparing the president’s current polling numbers with the same point in his first term, Enten said the opposite was true back then.

“In term one he was actually rising at this point. He was actually going up,” he said. “His three month change was up by 5 points. Now we’re talking about a three month change in which he has fallen to a new term two low, in which he’s at -18 points. In term one at this point, he was actually higher.”

Enten clarified Trump was “now 6 points lower” than now the same point in term one, but also “continuously falling” with “no sign of any bottom at this point in term number two.”

Anchor John Berman then asked about how Trump’s approval ratings were dragging on those “close to him” and the data analyst had bad news there for Vance:

Others close to him, the vice president of the United States, chance that JD Vance is a 2028 Republican nominee, six months ago, he was at a 53% chance, down he goes! He goes down at 37% chance! According to the Kalshi prediction market, this is tied for his all time low – JD Vance.

Returning back to Trump, Enten repeated that the president’s dire numbers remain in free fall: “But, you know, you just go back here, a slow or steady drop. My goodness gracious. With no sign of a bottom – death valley!”

Watch above via CNN.

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