‘So You’re Saying There’s a Chance’: CNN’s Harry Enten Lays Out Long Shot — But Not Impossible — Path for Nikki Haley

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has an uphill path to the GOP presidential nomination — but it’s neither impossible nor without historical precedent, CNN’s numbers guru Harry Enten argued on Monday.

Former President Donald Trump has held a “commanding lead” in the polling, said CNN News Central Sara Sidner to kick off the segment.

“How far behind is Nikki Haley, and is there some sort of historical example as to what might be her path to a win?” she asked Enten.

Trump is “well ahead” of Haley, replied Enten, “though she does have momentum.” He quickly ran through the latest polling, showing Trump 27 points ahead of Haley in Iowa, 22 points in New Hampshire, and 45 points nationally.

However, he noted, those numbers were trending in Haley’s favor and the “key nugget” was that she was doing better in those first in the nation primary states, “so the idea is that you win and do better in Iowa than expected, and win New Hampshire and then take off nationally,” making a “historical analogy” to the 1984 Democratic nomination battle between Walter Mondale and Gary Hart.

When Hart “finished stronger than expected” in Iowa, Enten explained, it “catapulted” him to win in New Hampshire (a stunning rise from 42 points down to a 9-point win), and Mondale’s lead nationally went from 39 points at this point in the polling to squeaking by Hart by only 2 points, requiring the Democratic nomination fight to go all the way to the 1984 party convention.

“So, look, it’s a long –” said Enten.

“It’s a possibility?” interjected Sidner. “It’s a long shot?”

“It is a possibility, and there’s a chance,” replied Enten.

“So you’re saying that there’s a chance?” quipped Sidner.

“Yes!” Enten agreed.

What were Haley’s chances of being able to continue her momentum and perhaps follow in Hart’s footsteps in Iowa and New Hampshire, asked Sidner.

Enten highlighted the number of non-Haley GOP primary voters whose minds were not yet made up, and Haley’s advantage in having South Carolina as the third primary contest. She was still down “significantly” to Trump, “but again, it’s a smaller lead for Trump than it is nationally,” and it was “key to keep in mind” that she had high favorability numbers in her own state.

“If Nikki Haley does something in Iowa, catapults herself in New Hampshire, then comes into South Carolina,” said Enten, then “I wouldn’t be surprised to see [Trump’s] margin shrink more.”

“Tough path, but there is a path that you can look to historically: the 1984 Dems,” Enten concluded. “If a slight few things went differently, maybe Gary Hart was the nominee in 1984, and maybe this time, hey, you never know in this era.”

Watch above via CNN.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!