Biden Underwater in BOTH Polling Averages After Afghanistan Withdrawal — Still Higher Than Trump at This Point in Presidency

Joe Biden and Donald Trump Poll Results 7-24-21

Screenshot / Scott Olson, Getty

For the first time since taking office, President Joe Biden’s disapproval is higher than his approval in both major polling averages, but he’s still considerably more popular than former President Donald Trump was at the same time in his term.

After many months of steady approval in the mid-50s, the president’s approval rating fell below 50 percent in mid-August in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls, and in the RealClearPolitics average as well. But the president’s approval was still higher than his disapproval in both averages.

But a few weeks, one massive airlift,  and one deadly terrorist attack later, Biden’s disapproval now eclipses his approval in both averages. In the 538 average, Biden has a slim minus .8 net approval, with 47.4 percent disapproval vs. 46.6 percent approval. In the RCP average, Biden’s net approval is more negative at minus 3.4 percent, with 49.2 percent disapproval versus 45.8 percent approval.

538 RCP charts

538, RCP

The FiveThirtyEight average uses a more complicated formula that weights results based on things like the pollster ratings and sample sizes, which produces a much more stable average than the RCP average. But the trend isn’t great in either average.

Biden’s predecessor, former President Donald Trump, never got above 49 percent in the Gallup tracking poll, the 538 average (45.5%), or the RCP average (44.5%). At this point in his presidency, Trump was seventeen points underwater in the averages.

But doing better than Trump is almost the lowest bar possible when it comes to opinion polling. As we’ve noted before, the president experienced the largest erosion of his support prior to the collapse of the Afghan government last month, and the fallout from the evacuation and the deadly attack in Kabul may not be over yet.

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