Exclusive: GOP Pollster Frank Luntz Says If Trump Wins, The Political Polling Industry is ‘Done’
Republican pollster Frank Luntz thinks the upcoming presidential election is Joe Biden’s to lose. But if President Donald Trump ends up pulling off an upset victory on November 3 — like he did in 2016 — it might be the “end of public polling” in politics.
Luntz, this week’s guest on The Interview podcast, gave pollsters something of a wake-up call when Mediaite’s Aidan McLaughlin asked what will happen to the industry if Trump wins the election despite the poor polling performance of his campaign.
“If polling gets it wrong again, then the industry, at least for politics, is done. You can get it wrong once. And it was the exit polling they got wrong — and none of the networks want to acknowledge it,” Luntz said. “I put out a tweet on election night of 2016 that said Hillary Clinton is going to be the next president. I was really blunt about it because exit polling had never been more than four percent off. And it was off in both 2000 and it was off in 2004. It was wrong.”
Luntz noted that polls did get the popular vote for Clinton correct, but polls were wrong when it came to the state by state numbers.
“But if they get it wrong a second time and Trump does win, I think it’s going to be very much the end of public polling in a political situation,” he said.
Luntz noted the polling strength of the Democratic nominee, and blamed the Trump campaign for failing to gain ground in the few remaining weeks before the election. He also said Trump’s decision to drop out of the second debate was a potentially “fatal error.”
“There are so few undecideds left and so few people that acknowledge they could switch who they support, that Trump would have to win 100 percent of them to get back in this race,” Luntz said. “Now, I believe that there is a so-called shy Trump voter, just not nearly as much as the Trump people want to believe.”
Watch above, via The Interview.
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