Trump Leading in Florida by 3 Points in Trafalgar Group Poll That Accounts for Hidden Trump Voters
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President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in the state of Florida, according to a poll by the Trafalgar Group.
The poll, conducted from September 1-3 and released on Friday, showed Trump winning support from 48.7 percent of likely voters, compared to 45.6 percent for Biden. The finding is at odds with other polls taken in the state, including one by Quinnipiac, which showed Biden leading by 3 percent just after the Republican National Convention.
The Georgia-based polling firm weights its surveys for “social desirability bias,” taking into account the idea that some Trump voters are afraid to be honest with pollsters. That methodology has included asking respondents who they believed their neighbors planned to vote for, as well as differences in how Trafalgar judges who is most likely to vote. It was also one of the only polling firms to correctly predict Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Pollster Nate Silver noted on Friday that his election models use Trafalgar, as well as Rasmussen, to predict who might win the election, writing on Twitter, “There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a ‘shy Trump’ effect.”
There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a “shy Trump” effect.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 4, 2020
Silver presently gives Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the election compared to a 71 percent chance for Biden. That aligns with his forecast in 2016, when he predicted Trump held a 28.6 percent chance of winning on the final day of the campaign.
Trafalgar has produced similarly optimistic conclusions for Trump in other states. A Trafalgar survey in mid-August found Trump statistically tied with Biden in Minnesota, 46.9 percent to 46.5 percent. An Emerson Poll taken earlier in the month showed Biden leading in Minnesota by 3 percent.
