The ‘Conservative’ Case for Trump’s Impeachment Conviction — And Why He’ll Be Acquitted

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This week, the second impeachment trial of now former President Donald Trump will begin in the Senate. Barring some sort of “black swan” event, he is not going to be convicted because too many Republicans will vote to acquit him, which is bizarre because the truly “conservative” argument for his conviction may be even stronger than the Democrats’ sincere desire to vote in that direction.

I have written previously about how this impeachment trial has an extremely bizarre and upside-down political incentive structure. Democrats will all vote to convict him, when most probably do not want to see him banned from every running for office again, while the vast majority of Republicans will vote to acquit, even though most of them would probably be thrilled to have Trump out of the way in coming election cycles.

The primary argument that Republicans are using to justify not convicting Trump of “inciting an insurrection” at the Capitol on January 6 is that he is out of office and that therefore the entire trial is wrong and unconstitutional. However, while that point will resonate with a lot of reasonable non-liberals, there is precedent for impeachment trials after the accused is out of office, and to create a new standard in this way for the president would be both dangerous and exceedingly un-conservative.

If a president cannot be tried after they leave office, it would effectively mean that anyone who holds that position is untouchable for the last couple of months of their term. After all, even this lightning fast impeachment was not nearly quick enough to force a trial before Trump left office.

Having absolutely no recourse with which to hold a president accountable for such a prolonged, and, as we saw this year, very volatile period of time, would be a recipe for disaster. It is also exactly the type of situation to which the Founding Fathers would never have purposely made us vulnerable.

Republicans will also claim that Trump is not directly responsible for, and obviously did not participate in, the attack on the Capitol. Therefore, they will argue, those who believe in personal responsibility should oppose his conviction. However, this stance completely disregards the full context of what happened, and Trump’s role in facilitating it.

If not for Trump, acting as the president of the United States, constantly telling the “Big Lie” of the rigged election for at least two months before the attack, the ground would not have been primed for the ensuing fire to start. Had he not facilitated and participated in the rally on that very day (telling the crowd they need to “fight like hell”), the spark would never have been ignited. Had he acted more quickly and forcefully to get his supporters to stop what they were going, the damage from those flames would have surely been mitigated.

Then there is the issue of what a Trump conviction would mean to what might still be left of “conservatism” (not much). There is zero doubt that, despite what the vast majority of Republicans who favor acquittal believe, politically a Trump conviction would be a huge boost to the future of that cause.

If Trump is still eligible and healthy enough to run, the 2024 GOP presidential nomination is essentially his. Even if he ultimately decides not to run, he will surely wait to make that decision until it is too late for a viable candidate to get any traction.

In short, under this scenario, Trump remains in control of the Republican Party for at least another four years, which will ensure that Democrats do far better than they would otherwise in 2022, and will absolutely keep the White House in 2024 (after all, when 56% of the public want Trump banned from ever running again, there is no legitimate chance he can ever be elected again).

Conversely, if Trump were to be convicted, and then surely banned from holding future office, the Republican Party would be in a far more tenable situation going forward. Trump would be politically neutered, and would quickly lose interest in influencing elections. If handled properly, he might even be incentivized to keep his cult voting Republican, all while his ability to create real political mischief is greatly reduced.

Meanwhile, Democrats have to realize this, and must be thankful that too many Republicans are still so terrified of the vengeance of Trump fans that they will not have to actually live with the ramifications of the conviction which they publicly claim to so desire. Like the cowards they are, Republicans seem destined to die slowly of a thousand cuts, rather than risk a hero’s death by trying to kill the Trump monster now, enduring the short-term pain which would surely come with such an effort.

It seems like the easier path for Republicans in the Senate to simply avoid the wrath of some of their political base and perhaps a future primary challenge by giving Trump yet another pass. However, years from now, they will rue the day they had this golden opportunity to do both the right thing for the country, and for their political survival, but lacked the nerve and the foresight to do so.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.

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