FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Destroys OAN for Cherrypicking Polls Favorable to Trump: ‘Not How Legitimate News Organizations Behave’
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FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver ripped One American News Network for cherrypicking their presidential polls in favor of President Donald Trump after three new polls released through the organization showed Trump up in swing states.
OAN released their polls through Gravis Marketing, which FiveThirtyEight gives an average C-grade for its accuracy with a mean-reverted bias under one. Its OAN-sponsored July 1 poll has Trump leading Vice President Joe Biden by four points in Arizona, and up three points in two other swing states. OAN’s write-up also included statistics showing Americans in favor of Trump’s performance on jobs and people in Arizona strongly supporting law enforcement.
The poll also says: “Results stood in contrast with reporting by mainstream outlets like Real Clear Politics, which had the president trailing Biden by 6%. Even polls from some major conservative outlets like Fox News showed President Trump losing headway in the battleground state.”
Silver took note that Gravis’ other polls released throughout the last week showed way different numbers than the ones commissioned by OAN.
So, Gravis Marketing has released 5 polls of the presidential race in the past several weeks. Three were for OAN (One America News) and three weren’t. Here’s what they showed:
Not for OAN
FL: Biden +10
MN: Biden +16For OAN
NC: Trump +3
GA: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +4— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 14, 2020
“I know it’s just 5 polls,” Silver wrote on Twitter Tuesday afternoon. “But the three polls for OAN are literally some of Trump’s best polls during this time period and the two non-OAN polls are literally some of his worst polls. The sponsor shouldn’t really have an effect on poll results like that.”
That other Florida poll didn’t meet our standards for inclusion (and we have inclusive standards) because of the…weirdness in how OAN disclosed the results.
But a TIE in a Gravis/OAN Florida poll vs. Biden +10 in a non-OAN Gravis poll fits the pattern.https://t.co/QeyqIi8Ovc
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 14, 2020
Following Silver’s thread trashing OAN, The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris reported that Gravis has expressed frustration with OAN for releasing polls that favor Trump more and have told them to “cut it out.”
“[They] said that OAN has only been releasing the polls Gravis sent them that turned out best for Trump,” Morris tweeted. “(Gravis says they have since told OAN to “cut it out.”)”
Why are polls sponsored by One America News some of Trump’s best? I spoke to Gravis Marketing, their pollster, who said that OAN has only been releasing the polls Gravis sent them that turned out best for Trump. (Gravis says they have since told OAN to “cut it out.”) https://t.co/aOM1TD4Va5
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) July 14, 2020
Silver went on to attack OAN because the way they publish polling is “not how legitimate news organizations behave,” he said.
This is really bad on the part of OAN. It is literally how campaigns behave (only releasing polls to the public when they show favorable results for their candidate). It is not how legitimate news organizations behave. https://t.co/T93nufAldU
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 14, 2020
In response to Silver’s comments, Gravis Marketing told The Washington Examiner’s Mike Brest, “It’s nonsense @NateSilver538 never called me for comment they just want to attack @OANN we did many polls with them in 2016 they’re not factoring them in.”
.@GravisMarketing told me this on the subject:
“It’s nonsense @NateSilver538 never called me for comment they just want to attack @OANN we did many polls with them in 2016 they’re not factoring them in.”
— Mike Brest (@MikeBrestDC) July 14, 2020
This story has been updated with comments from Gravis Marketing.
