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Joe Biden Up 10 Points Over Trump in First Poll to Include Sampling From Day of Harris VP Announcement

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Former Vice President Joe Biden is up by 10 points over President Donald Trump in the first poll to include sampling from the day Biden made the historic announcement that Senator Kamala Harris would be his running mate.

It may be — and is — too early to discern a polling bump from Biden’s announcement that Kamala Harris will join his ticket in a bid to become the first Black woman and first woman to hold the office of vice president of the United States, but it’s never too early to start obsessing about it.

To that end, let’s over-analyze the latest Economist/YouGov poll, which was conducted from August 9 through August 11 — the day of the announcement.

Biden, who holds a 7 to 8 point lead in national polling averages from RCP and FiveThirtyEight, leads Trump by ten points in the YouGov poll with 49 percent to Trump’s 39 percent among registered voters.

That’s just a one-point lead increase from the last Economist/YouGov poll, conducted a week earlier, but only a portion of the new poll was taken on the day of the announcement. Obviously, more polls are needed to judge the possible effect of Harris’ addition to the ticket.

Again keeping that in mind, Biden did see a significant jump from week-to-week among Black voters in the poll. He led Trump by 61 points last week (73% to 12%) among Black voters, but extended that lead to 77 points (82% to 5%) in this week’s poll — with little change in the white vote. The smaller sample size for Black voters does introduce more potential for error, but the sample in both polls is large enough to be statistically significant.

What kind of bump can Biden expect from this selection? Only time and a bunch more polls will tell, but previous polling has indicated overwhelming support for a Black nominee, and significant numbers of voters who said such a selection would be important to them.

 

 

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