RealClearPolitics Predicts a Herschel Walker Victory in Georgia and a GOP Majority in the Senate

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RealClearPolitics predicts in its latest “Battle for the Senate” projection that Democrats will lose their Senate majority, while embattled GOP nominee Herschel Walker will prevail in Georgia.

Three weeks before the midterms, the polling data aggregator predicts Walker will defeat incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in their race. Warnock leads in the RCP average by 2.4 points, but the latest poll from Landmark Communications shows the candidates tied at 46% each.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 15 to Oct. 17, meaning in that poll, Walker has not only survived personal scandal but has actually gained ground with voters.

Other polls in the race show Warnock leading within their respective margins of error. A Quinnipiac University poll shows Warnock up by seven points. The poll was released 11 days ago on Oct. 7 – immediately after Walker denied allegations he paid for an abortion for a former girlfriend.

The current “Battle for the Senate” map predicts Republicans will hold a 52-48 majority after the midterms.

RealClearPolitics

In Arizona, RCP had projected incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) would lose his seat to Blake Masters. The battle map now predicts Kelly will keep the seat.

Elsewhere, in Pennsylvania, RCP predicts the GOP will flip Nevada away from incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). GOP candidate Adam Laxalt leads in five of six recent polls. His RCP average is +1.7 points.

Meanwhile, the aggregator predicts Mehmet Oz will defeat Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. The two are vying to take the seat being vacated by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).

In recent weeks, Oz has pivoted to a more moderate message than the one he shared while he campaigned during the GOP primary.

Additionally, Fetterman is plagued by speculation a stroke he suffered earlier this year has affected his ability to communicate. The Democrat is up 3.4 points in the RCP average, but only one of the polls used in the average has been updated since last month.

In Ohio, RCP projects Republican J.D. Vance will defeat Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) to take the seat currently held by Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH).