One Explanation For Midterm Results? Oldsters Outvoted Youngsters—By A Lot

by Hillary Busis | 3:42 pm, November 3rd, 2010

» 4 comments

The New Republic’s Jonathan Chait joins the ranks of reporters posting midterm post-mortems this morning, with a piece that offers a simple explanation for why the elections turned out the way they did. Chait says that turnout yesterday was “disproportionately old and white,” which explains why the GOP swept the House and nearly wrested control of the Senate:

The exit polls from today’s election show how this happened. The non-white share of the electorate fell from 24% in 2008 to 19% in 2010. But the age gap is the real tidal shift. In 2008, Republicans won voters over 65 years old by 8 points, but were crushed among voters under 30 by more than 30 points. The under 30 vote outnumbered the over 65 vote.

In 2010, Democrats still crushed Republicans among the under 30 vote, albeit by just 20 points. But the over 65 vote went Republican by a massive 20 point margin. What’s more, in today’s election, senior citizens constituted more than twice as high a share of the electorate compared to voters under 30. In 2008, the young were 18% of the electorate, and the old were 16% of the electorate. In 2010, the young were 10% of the electorate, and the old were 24% of the electorate.

A huge portion of what happened in this election, then, reflects the fact that Obama won with a coalition unusually dependent upon the young, and that he failed to turn these sporadic voters into regular voters. Democrats’ strength among the young bodes well for them in the long run, but as Keynes famously said, in the long run we’re all dead. In the short term, Republicans are back in command of the House. And Democrats will probably continue to struggle disproportionately in midterm elections.

Though Chait’s point doesn’t really come as a surprise, the numbers he cites are pretty incredible. Still, it seems premature to conclude that Obama “failed” to turn young voters into regular voters, based purely on one election. Maybe the turnout in 2010 will be the true measure of whether the President has lost his young base.

2010 midterm elections, 2010 midterms, Midterm Elections, Midterms 2010, young voters

http://www.libertarianism.com/ Jack Burns

One Explanation For Midterm Results? Oldsters Outvoted Youngsters—By A Lot

I do belove thats true.. This old fart voted. Went into the polling place and it looked like a retirement home LOL…
Cancon2

Youngters loved that Hopey Change thing the One had going on, but after two years they were still trying to figure it out and decided that Jersey Shore was a lot better at delivering the goods and apparently the Oceans were just fine after all.
Snidely

As an old white guy, Obama lost me when I first heard anything about him. I served 2 tours in Vietnam as a combat engineer, and another 3 years on the Czech border waiting for the Soviets to cross, and I have an allergic reaction to anything left of Bob Dole. Obama is left of Hilary, which is saying something.

Also, I’ve heard all the BS from all the politicians, and always vote for the (perceived) least-bad candidate, which is usually the Republican. Sometimes I just have to hold my nose, but for George W I needed a gas mask. Anyway, all I ask is the Republicans keep the Democrats from passing anything between now and 2012, and they’ll get my vote. Well, unless they nominate Romney, in which case I may have to vote for a 3d party.
OldGuy

Snidely said:
As an old white guy, Obama lost me when I first heard anything about him. I served 2 tours in Vietnam as a combat engineer, and another 3 years on the Czech border waiting for the Soviets to cross, and I have an allergic reaction to anything left of Bob Dole. Obama is left of Hilary, which is saying something. Also, I’ve heard all the BS from all the politicians, and always vote for the (perceived) least-bad candidate, which is usually the Republican. Sometimes I just have to hold my nose, but for George W I needed a gas mask. Anyway, all I ask is the Republicans keep the Democrats from passing anything between now and 2012, and they’ll get my vote. Well, unless they nominate Romney, in which case I may have to vote for a 3d party.

Thank you for your service. You’ve earned the right to say anything you’d like.