Fox News’ Frank Luntz: Lib Dem Outrage Will Win US 2010 Midterms

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by Frances Martel | 1:50 pm, April 21st, 2010

» 6 comments

With the UK’s left-wing Labour Party in steep decline, Sean Hannity had pollster Frank Luntz on his show last night to discuss how the political landscape overseas could relate to the 2010 midterm elections. Luntz suggested that “it happens first in Britain and then comes to America,” which means this era of unprecedented polarization will lead to a massive victory by… the centrist party?

Hannity opens with the news that the next UK Prime Minister could very well be a conservative, although in reality the story of these elections is that the Liberal Democrats, a center-left party that hasn’t been competitive in decades, is flirting with the lead in most polls or barely taking it in others, a shift that Andrew Sullivan has been chronicling very closely. Granted, the Tories are neck-in-neck with them and the decline of the Labour Party is a massive story for the right, but this isn’t exactly Hannity’s definition of “conservative victory.”

That said, Luntz did provide some lessons to the Tea Party movement based on his live-reaction polling of debate rhetoric. Fear of the future isn’t landing Gordon Brown any votes, but running on change isn’t helping Tory candidate David Cameron, either. Compared with these two, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg‘s positive polling– a reaction, Luntz argues, to his outrage– is that much more significant, and indicative of the attitude that will win elections here in November.

Hannity suggests that the key to victory for the Republican Party in November is an emphasis on specific policy changes, which Luntz politely refutes. The Lib Dems, he argues, are winning because their “hostility towards the economic system is hot,” and boring the public with policy is a surefire way to lose support, as has been happening to the right wing in Britain. Hannity’s conclusion from this, of course, is that “this is evidence that what I’ve been saying is exactly right.”

Video below:

Andrew Sullivan, David Cameron, Frank Luntz, Gordon Brown, Hannity, Nick Clegg, Prime Minister, UK elections

http://www.youtube.com/cmdrgmh cmdrgmh

Poor Frank Cuntz. I see his golden Boy Marco Ruby-Girl has the Feds crawling up his ass spending other people’s money on himself. It is a good day.
The Real Royal King

I find it stunning how wrong Luntz so often is.

Of course, in fairness, Hannity saddled with an exceedingly ignorant premise, the cross-Atlantic political effect, which presumes at its core that there is equivalency between the Tories and the Republicans and (New) Labour and the Democrats. There is not. The Tories do not begin to be as extreme as the Republicans, and (New) Labour is more centrist than many Democrats. In fact, both the Tories and (New) Labour are centrist parties. The UK has nothing which resembles the current Republican Party, ideologically.

Hannity’s framework also presumes that the Liberal Democrats do not exist. They have been a steady if, at times, small force in British politics since their Time in the Wilderness began early in the 20th Century.

Even so, Luntz says: “it happens first in Britain and then comes to America.” That’s demonstrably false. The UK remained Tory until 1964 when Harold Wilson was elected PM. That was at the end of the Kennedy/Johnson term. The UK, if anything, followed the US.

Thatcher was elected in 1979, and Raygun in 1980, so there could be some notion of a presaging then. Carter may have finished his term in 1981, but the electorate’s mood has already shifted in the US by 1978.

Then, Major served until 1997, five years into Clinton’s presidency, and was only then replaced by Blair.

No, Mr. Luntz we can clearly say that the converse may be true, but your conclusion is clearly, irrefutably wrong. One has to wonder if Luntz is not another persona of Jeff Merrill, indeed.

I am not convinced the Clegg and the Liberal Democrats will win a plurality. I think that will still go to the Tories because the UK is further away from national elections than even in the US is. Clegg’s support is intense in London and its suburbs, Manchester and Liverpool, but it weakens in the Home Counties. Remember, the MP elections are local. I do think the LIberal Democrats will come in second and do well. Is there a lesson there for the US? Probably not, except, perhaps, that incumbents are not popular. Then, again, we in the US have known that in 2006 and 2008, haven’t we?

Luntz needs to stop pandering to Hannity’s ego, or he will look like an utter fool. Luntz is an adequate pollster and marginal analyst, at best, but if he continues to start each of his commentaries with “What do I do with the data to make this look good for the Republicans and FOX?,” he just becomes an utter laughingstock.
The Real Royal King

Yes, the Rubio situation is getting most interesting, isn’t it? The credit card problems he is having make Palin look like a piker.
The_Reasonable_Lib

You know what I say? I say we don’t know what will happen until November. It’s certain that the dems will lose seats, the leading party always does in off year elections, but will the Republicans gain enough to take control? Doubtful. People are just as angry with them as they are democrats, and they are not making things better for themselves either, 100k on a meeting hawaii isn’t very fiscally conservative. I think that it will all come down to whether President Obama is able to secure enough jobs before the election. The economy is the main issue, however I also understand that there is no one stop shop for that with regards to cutting or raising taxes, it requires a balance. I personally believe that we need to bring back our manufacturing sector which may mean providing tax cuts to companies that build factories here. However, if you do that then you can’t complain about the debt and the deficit. You can’t have your cake and eat it too.
timzank

The_Reasonable_Lib says: ” I personally believe that we need to bring back our manufacturing sector which may mean providing tax cuts to companies that build factories here.”

That horse ain’t never gettin’ back in the barn.

Our manufacturing “start ups’ are long gone, and the ones hanging on will be driven out by the cap and trade. The final nail in the coffin (after govt regs/unions)
drex94

another idiot counting his chickens………..Go get him Ann Coulter