Blue Tsunami? New Report Predicts Dems Will Win More Than the 41 House Seats They Flipped in 2018
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This election year is looking rosier and rosier for Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report, which revised another set of its well-known congressional ratings on Friday to shift another set of races mostly to the left.
New House rating changes:#AZ06 Lean R to Toss Up#KS02 Lean R to Likely R#KS03 Lean D to Likely D#MI06 Likely R to Lean R#MO02 Lean R to Toss Up
Full article here (?): https://t.co/hLTrr03rmd pic.twitter.com/KeYnjrf2io
— CookPoliticalReport (@CookPolitical) August 7, 2020
According to the latest analysis from the nonpartisan subscription newsletter, both Arizona’s sixth congressional district and Missouri’s second went from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” Michigan’s sixth went from “likely R” to “lean R,” and Kansas’ third went from “lean Democrat” to “likely D.” Only Kansas’ second moved in a positive direction for Republicans, going from “lean R” to “likely R.”
Polls have shown Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a steady lead over President Donald Trump, both in national polling (which obviously does not determine the electoral college result but has been viewed as a barometer to track shifts in public sentiments) and in critical swing state polls.
Currently, there are 232 Democrats and 198 Republicans in the House, a Democrat majority that took over after the “blue wave” election of 2018. Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan is the House’s sole Libertarian, and after briefly considering and then abandoning a third-party presidential campaign, also announced he was not running for reelection this year. His seat representing Michigan’s third district, leans R, according to Cook. Four other seats are open, including the one that was held by the late Rep. John Lewis (D-GA).
With the Republicans’ control of the Senate also in jeopardy and House races continuing to trend leftward, 2020 “there could very well be…another ‘blue wave’ come November,” wrote Mica Soellner at The Washington Examiner.
Right now, Cook lists 34 seats as likely D or lean D — including three seats they predict will flip from Republican to Democrat — compared to 30 seats they predict as Likely R or Lean R, with no seats taken back from the Democrats.
Twenty-eight seats are rated toss up, but even if the Republicans win every single one of them, that wouldn’t be enough to close the gap from the 2018 election, much less recover the seats that Cook expects to shift to the Democrats.
Cook’s Senate analysis is also likely to be keeping Republican campaign consultants up at night. The GOP has a narrow grip on control of the Senate, with 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with them). Due to the staggered schedule for senatorial elections, not all seats are on the ballot this year, and the Republicans not only have more races at stake, but more that are at risk for flipping.
Twenty-two GOP senators are running for reelection. Including one open Tennessee senate seat, nine of those Republican senators enjoy a solid R rating from Cook and are expected to win without Herculean efforts. Four more Republicans get a likely R, and then it keeps sliding left, with two rated lean R, six toss-up, and Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona facing an uphill battle fighting to defend a lean D seat.
Meanwhile, Democrats only have to defend twelve seats, and they are more solidly left-leaning than the Republicans’ were right-leaning. Ten of those 12 are Solid D, Sen. Gary Peters‘ seat in Michigan is Lean D, and Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama is in a Lean R contest.
The end result is that Democratic candidates, party organizations, and various PACs that are supporting liberal congressional candidates are likely to have fewer races that require major outside investments in order to have a competitive chance at victory. Republicans have enjoyed solid fundraising under Trump but may find that money spread thin as additional races become unexpected battlegrounds.
