‘Disastrous’: Karl Rove Warns That Russian Victory Over Ukraine Would Be Trump’s Afghanistan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and US President Donald Trump (right) on the airfield after their arrival. Credit: Dmitry Azarov/Kommersant Photo/Sipa USA(Sipa via AP Images)

Legendary GOP operative Karl Rove took to The Wall Street Journal to warn President Donald Trump that a Russian victory over Ukraine would be his own version of former President Joe Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal in a new column.

Trump met with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin last Friday, and a number of European leaders — including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — on Monday, and has expressed optimism that he may be able to broker a deal between the two parties in the near future.

Rove suggested that there are three possible outcomes to Trump’s recent attempts to secure peace in Eastern Europe.

“One is that the American president becomes as tough on Mr. Putin as he has been on Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. Then he could play a pivotal role in getting Russia and Ukraine to arrive at a deal that results in a durable peace,” wrote Rove. “The second possible outcome: If Russia and Ukraine can’t come to an agreement, the conflict would rage on over battlefields filled with dead soldiers from both countries as Moscow keeps pounding civilian targets from the sky.”

“A failure to come to an agreement would hurt Mr. Trump’s reputation as a strong leader and a great deal-maker. The outcome would strengthen Democrats and put Republicans on the defensive,” he added.

“Then there’s the third possible outcome—a Russian victory,” posited Rove. “This could happen if there’s no agreement. It could also happen if Russia agreed to something, broke its word as it has many times before, and then crushed Ukraine by brute force.”

“In addition to being the worst possible outcome morally and geopolitically, this third possibility is the worst scenario for the president and the GOP. The disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and subsequent Taliban takeover broke President Biden’s reputation with voters. He never recovered. Mr. Biden was at 50% approval in Gallup in July 2021; he dropped precipitously after Kabul fell the following month. He bottomed out at 36% in July 2024 before he withdrew from the presidential race,” argued the architect of former President George W. Bush’s two campaigns for the White House.

“The defeat of Ukraine by Russia would be similarly disastrous for Mr. Trump. He came to office promising a quick and easy end to the conflict—’in 24 hours,’ he said. This raised unnecessarily high expectations. His erratic approach since—buttering up Mr. Putin, strong-arming Ukraine to sign an economic deal with the U.S., supplying needed weapons to Kyiv before slow-playing them, the Oval Office debacle with Mr. Zelensky in February, and his friendlier embrace now of the Ukrainian leader—may all have been examples of Mr. Trump’s famous deal-making moves. Or not,” he submitted. “Either way, he has put himself at center stage. The president can’t abandon his starring role even if he wants to. Public opinion in America and the rest of the civilized world would rightly blame Mr. Putin for the invasion itself—but Mr. Trump for allowing it to succeed.”