CNN Data Guru Stunned by Shutdown Bump for GOP — And ‘Concerning’ Figure for Democrats

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten marveled at encouraging polling figures for the GOP and concerning ones for the Democrats on Tuesday morning.

Here’s how Enten’s animated discussion with anchor John Berman played out:

BERMAN: One thing that might end a shutdown is political pain, if parties start to feel that it’s hurting them. So let’s talk about that, starting with Republicans. How has the shutdown seemed to have affected their political standing?

ENTEN: Yeah, you might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But in fact, it hasn’t! If anything, it’s been helped a little bit! Take a look here, the shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. When we’re looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand, actually up two points. That’s within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn’t dropped. Come over to this side of the screen, look at the net approval ratings for Republicans in Congress. It’s actually up five points since pre-shutdown! So what we’re seeing here is the Republican brand in Congress has actually improved somewhat compared to where we were pre-shutdown, despite the fact that Republicans control. And that’s the math that John Thune and Mike Johnson are looking at is, “Hey, why should we give in, electorally speaking, when our brand has actually improved a little bit?

BERMAN: Now we say their position is getting better, with whom?

ENTEN: Yeah, okay, with whom? So I think it’s two groups that it’s so important to keep an eye on. All right, change in the Republican Congress’s net approval rating versus pre-shutdown. It’s rallying the base for sure. Look at this, the net approval rating up 12 points versus pre-shutdown. But it’s not just with the base, it’s also with the middle of the electorate. Look at this among independents, it’s up eight points as well! So we’ve got a situation here where Republicans with the shutdown are actually rallying their base, but it’s also something that’s not hurting them with the folks in the middle. If anything it’s helping them with folks in the middle, and this is the type of math that if you’re Republicans you like to see, right? Because something could rally the base but alienate those in the middle, or something could rally those in the middle, but alienate the base. But the truth is we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is the Republican brand has actually gotten better among independents and it’s also gotten better among Republicans as well that Republican brand when it comes to those in Congress. So again, what’s what’s the electoral reason that Republicans would given at this point?

BERMAN: And Democrats, of course, they have their eyes on the midterm elections. Yeah, we have elections one week from today, but what Democrats in Congress are mostly focused on are one year and one week from today, from the midterms. So how do Democrats, how are they positioned right now?

ENTEN: Yeah, so, I mea  look, the generic Congressional ballot, which traditionally Democrats have done really well on, and if you look at this point back when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now. Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points. This is, in fact, the worst position Democrats have been on in a generic ballot at this time in a midterm when there was a Republican president in the last 20 years. And this is no different from pre-shutdown. So Republicans aren’t losing on this metric either. They’ve become more popular, and they’re in a pretty good position for them historically when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.

BERMAN: This is a concerning number for Democrats, are you saying?

ENTEN: This is a concerning number for Democrats, because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican president.

Watch above via CNN.