‘What a Change!’ CNN’s Harry Enten Predicts Democrats Will Win Trump’s Redistricting War

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten joined anchor Kate Bolduan on Thursday to discuss the ongoing gerrymandering wars between the GOP and the Democratic Party, a battle that was kicked off in Texas by President Donald Trump.

“Yeah, okay. You know, Donald Trump and the Republicans started this redistricting fight, but it looks like the Democrats are going to finish them off. Because what are we talking about? What’s the most likely outcome? Most likely House seat gain from mid-decade redistricting,” began Enten, adding:

You mentioned back in the summer of 2025, it started in Texas. It looked like Republicans—the most likely—that they were going to get nationwide was five seats. But today, at this point, the most-likely outcome is Democrats actually gaining from the mid-decade redistricting battle. Now this isn’t exact, right? It’s an approximation. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s tied. I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats actually gained two or three seats from the mid-decade redistricting battle. But the bottom line is this: it started out as a plus for Republicans, and now it looks like the Democrats have fought back and fought back in a major way. It looks like it’s gonna be a plus to them nationwide.

Bolduan asked, “Which states are you thinking are going to present more advantage for one party over another?”

“Yeah, okay. So, right, you know, it’s basic mathematics, right? You know, likely redistricting gains for 2026: California, of course, Gavin Newsom, five seats for the Democrats. Utah, court ruling there, one seat. And then it basically evens out on the Republican side, right? Maybe a four-seat gain from Texas,” Enten replied, adding:

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if that was, in fact, three—only three, not the five we thought it was going to start out with—again, taking away seats from the Republicans nationwide. One in North Carolina, one in Ohio. But basically even. But even in terms of the likelihood, I think it’s more likely than not that Democrats are going to be on the plus side of this equation when you add up the different states.

Bolduan followed up, “What other states are you watching, though, for a possible, you know, to impact this outcome?”

Enten replied, “Yeah, okay. What about the potential gains? The potential gains. You know, there was a big ruling in New York court yesterday. There could be—Democrats gain a seat there. This is potential. Maryland may be a seat there. It may redistrict and put an 8-0 map instead of the 7-1 currently.”

“How about three seats in the Commonwealth of Virginia? You’re looking at five on this side. There may be three in Florida for Republicans, one in Missouri. But again, here, what are we talking about? We’re talking about five versus four: four on the GOP side, five on the Democrat side. You just start adding the states up over and over and over again. And what you see is what you’ll see at the top here, which is most likely outcome at this point is Democrats, not Republicans, gaining from redistricting. What a change! If you said to me last summer Democrats more likely to gain than Republicans, I wouldn’t buy it. But again, as I said at the start, Donald Trump and the Republicans started this mid-decade redistricting war, but it looks like Democrats are going to finish them off,” he concluded.

Bolduan agreed, “No, I mean, the—I mean, just the vibes from the summer when this all rolled out, you would not expect this.”

Watch the clip above via CNN.

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