CNN Fact-Checker Daniel Dale Torpedoes Trump Claim Black Support Has Quadrupled Since Mugshot
CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale torpedoed ex-President Donald Trump’s claim that Black voter support for him has as much as quintupled since his mugshot was released.
Upon its release shortly after Trump’s arrest, the mugshot immediately became the featured image on a cornucopia of campaign merchandise — and the subject of some intense reactions.
Earlier this week, Trump claimed in an interview with Hugh Hewitt that “The Black community is so different for me in the last – since that mug shot was taken, I don’t know if you’ve seen the polls — my polls with the Black community have gone up four and five times.”
On Friday night’s edition of CNN Primetime, Dale joined anchor Abby Phillip and put that claim to the test, and found that Trump’s support among Black voters since the mugshot is within the margin of error — essentially statistically unchanged:
PHILLIP: Yes. Well, Daniel, Trump, on the other hand, is also claiming that polls show his support among Black Americans has quadrupled or even quintupled since his mug shot was released. What’s the truth about that?
DALE: The truth is that that’s not true. So, we identified five post mug shot polls that released specific data on Black respondents. In one of them, he actually declined compared to polls taken before the mug shot was released. In four of them, he did see increases, but very small ones, all within the margin of error. We’re talking like three points, three points, six points.
So, we’re not sure if that reflect as genuine increase or because it was within the margin of error, if that is simply statistical noise. And we have to emphasize, of course, even if there has been a genuine increase with Black voters in the last couple of weeks, that could be for any number of hundreds of reasons. It could be gas prices. It could be something about the war in Ukraine. It could be anything. There is no sign or whatsoever that Black voters are reacting enthusiastically to the existence of a Donald Trump mug shot.
PHILLIP: I don’t know if that will come as a surprise to anyone, but thank you for clarifying that, Daniel. I appreciate.
Watch above via CNN Primetime.
