As The New York Times‘ FiveThirtyEight blog reported on Friday, one way to gauge a candidate’s chances of taking the election, beyond poring over poll results, is by examining betting results, such as those from Intrade and “bookies.”
Nate Silver compares his blog’s forecast to that of Intrade:
The forecast model is being very aggressive about pricing in Mr. Romney’s gains. In our “now-cast,” he’s added a net of 4.8 percentage points since the debate. He will need to have more strong polling days like Friday to maintain his current standing in the model.
But the FiveThirtyEight forecast of Mr. Romney’s chances — 38.9 percent — is nearly identical to the one at the betting market Intrade, which put them at 38.5 percent as of early Friday evening.
Other prediction markets and bookmakers, Silver adds, give the former governor slightly lower chances, in the range of “30 or 35 percent.”
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