Nate Silver Bashes California Senator’s ‘Self-Destructive’ Recall Strategy Telling Democratic Voters Not to Pick a Newsom Replacement

Jackson RichmanAug 23rd, 2021, 3:20 pm
 

Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver bashed Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA) telling California voters to vote against recalling Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and leave the second part of the recall question blank.

On Aug. 14, Padilla tweeted, “Ballots for the radical right-wing recall will begin to be mailed out on Monday. Remember: vote NO on question 1, leave 2 blank, sign, date, seal & return. IT IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT THAT WE ALL DO OUR PART TO DEFEAT THIS DANGEROUS POWER GRAB.”

In response, Vox’s Andrew Prokop tweeted on Monday, “Urging Dem voters to abstain from the replacement question is self-interested strategy (Newsom wants to frame the choice as between him and a Republican). But the replacement vote only matters *if* Newsom loses the recall vote. Picking a replacement candidate doesn’t hurt Newsom.”

Silver retweeted Prokop and added in a thread, “It’s self-destructive more than self-interested. Pretty decent chance Newsom gets recalled. Democrats could potentially keep the seat if they urged their voters to consolidate behind an alternative Democrat but instead they’re telling them not to vote on the replacement!”

“Pretty much always, if someone tells you not to vote, they are giving you bad advice. If you live in California and leave the recall line blank, you are partly disenfranchising yourself and are making a mistake,” added Silver.

Polls show a tight race over the question over whether to recall Newsom, who has come under fire for issues from responding to the coronavirus pandemic to homelessness. Over the question of who should succeed Newsom were the incumbent governor to be ousted with a majority vote, conservative radio host Larry Elder leads the field.

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