You Don’t REALLY Believe Rachel Maddow is Considering Leaving MSNBC, Do You?

Rachel Maddow is going nowhere.

Forget what you read over at the Daily Beast yesterday about how talks between Maddow and MSNBC are getting “heated,” and that the 9 p.m. star is considering taking her talents to podcasting.

“Maddow seems unlikely to jump to a rival television news network,” The Daily Beast reports. “Instead, she has been intrigued by opportunities in the streaming and podcasting space, which would allow her more freedom, time for her personal life, and for other projects, people familiar with her thinking said.”

Despite the fact that her contract is up in early 2022, and negotiations have hit a stalemate, Rachel Maddow is all but a lock to re-sign with her network of the past 16 years.

The ol’ talks-are-breaking-down bit is a well-worn gambit in the cable news business. And that’s almost certainly what’s happening here. Despite rumblings to the contrary, it seems highly unlikely that Maddow is truly looking to jump ship.

Why? Here are the five biggest reasons why MSNBC’s prime time stalwart is just about certain to stay put:

1. She wants the largest platform possible ahead of 2022 and 2024.

One of the reasons Maddow has resonated with her audience so strongly over the years is that they know she is earnest. Where some on cable news come off like professional wrestlers who could switch sides at the drop of a hat, Maddow strikes viewers as a true believer. Progressive causes very clearly are close to her heart. She is passionate about seeing her vision for the country come to pass.

Maddow, undoubtedly, understands the stakes of the 2022 midterms, and the 2024 presidential race. With new voter laws making their way through Republican-controlled state legislatures across the country, a run of red in the next two elections could set the Left back for decades. Maddow wants to prevent that at all costs.

The best way for her to do that is by going on MSNBC at 9 p.m. every night. Sure, Maddow is big enough that much of her audience would follow her wherever she goes. But she also figures prominently in MSNBC’s widely-watched breaking politics and election coverage. If she’s not aligned with a major cable or broadcast network, her words won’t often reach those viewers who aren’t her fans. And that’s the segment of the marketplace she’d truly love to capture ahead of these next two crucial votes.

2. She’s got the toughest agent on the planet in her corner.

After years with Napoli Management Group, the MSNBC star made a shakeup to her representation ahead of her talks with the network. As revealed in the Beast report, Maddow enlisted Hollywood heavy hitters Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro of Endeavor to handle her next move.

One does not call upon a power player like Ari Emanuel to broker an agreement with a non-traditional outlet. It’s a considerable waste of Emanuel’s talents. Hiring Ari Emanuel to negotiate your podcast deal is like hiring Tiger Woods to teach you mini golf. You just wouldn’t do it.

The Beast’s report tellingly states, at one point, “as negotiations drag on…” That’s exactly what Ari Emanuel is here for — prolonged negotiations. The super agent has spent decades duking it out with networks and Hollywood studios — the biggest outfits in the worlds of news and entertainment. And he’s won, time and again. He’s not in this to cut and run from MSNBC. He’s here to battle them.

3. She owes it to herself and her colleagues to use every negotiating ploy she can.

A rising tide lifts all boats, and a massive new Rachel Maddow contract would undoubtedly lift every boat in the MSNBC water. Maddow is widely thought to be close with a number of her colleagues. She would surely love to raise the bar for MSNBC host salaries across-the-board.

One way to do that is by posturing as though she’s going to walk away. It’s a tried-and-true tactic among major news personalities. From Hoda Kotb, to George Stephanopoulos, to Anderson Cooper and on down the line, it’s practically a rite of passage for a big ticket news star to flirt with rivals and tease a potential exit, before ultimately staying home.

Of course, sometimes the bluff gets called, and the star moves on. That’s not unprecedented, but it’s very unlikely to happen here.

4. She wants to avoid burnout.

A key point in the Daily Beast report is that Maddow feels worn down, and is seeking a reduced workload so she can spend more time with her family. Without question, almost everyone in the news business can relate.

But this is a case where the devil Maddow knows is better than the devil she doesn’t. Maddow has held down the 9 p.m. slot on MSNBC for the past 12 years. The longer one has a job, the better one knows how to manage it. A new podcast or streaming venture — even if it resulted in less on air time, or required less preparation time — could take some very heavy lifting ahead of its launch. If it struggles out of the gate, it could take even more work to fix.

The Beast reports that MSNBC executives have floated the possibility of a reduced workload. Taped episodes, generous summer vacations, a permanent substitute who develops familiarity with the audience and could allow for even more time off. All of that seems very much on the table at MSNBC. There are many ways the network could dramatically cut Maddow’s hours while keeping her on the air.

5. She’s got MSNBC over a barrel.

And here’s the biggest reason why Rachel Maddow is a safe bet to stay at MSNBC: Her leverage couldn’t be stronger. As the Beast’s Lachlan Cartwright and Maxwell Tani sagely noted in their report’s penultimate paragraph, “It has not been lost on network higher-ups that MSNBC does not have an immediate or obvious successor if Maddow chooses to leave.” Chris Hayes and Lawrence O’Donnell are highly uninspiring options. And a look at the rest of MSNBC’s lineup shows no clear choice elsewhere on the roster.

New MSNBC president Rashida Jones has yet to put her stamp on the network since taking over earlier this year. There is absolutely no way that her first major move could be to let her network’s only bona fide superstar walk — particularly without a slam dunk replacement. She will surely do everything in her power to keep the network’s signature host on board.

Translation: MSNBC is going to have to back up the Brinks truck for their 9 p.m. mainstay. It’s going to punish their bottom line, but they have little choice.

Rest easy, Maddow fans. Come next spring, your favorite host will still be in the big chair at MSNBC weeknights at 9 p.m. A new long-term deal is just a matter of time.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.