National Redistricting Expert Declares ‘Democrats Have Clearly Won’ the Gerrymandering ‘War’: ‘Without a Doubt’ 

In the gerrymandering war between Democrats and Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election, there is a clear winner right now: The Dems.

That’s what Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting expert and assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, told Mediaite founder Dan Abrams on Abrams’ SiriusXM radio program on Wednesday.

“Who do you think ends up benefiting from the [gerrymandering] efforts nationwide?” Abrams asked Cervas.

“If nothing changes, as [the districts] are right now, Democrats have clearly won this war,” Cervas said. “Without a doubt.”

Abrams followed up, asking if that is based on an assumption that Texas has to use its 2021 congressional state and legislative maps in next year’s midterms, after a federal judge in November blocked the state’s efforts to redraw its maps. The judge said there was “substantial evidence” that the new district lines were “racially gerrymandered,” and ordered Texas to use its 2021 map.

Cervas said that is definitely a key factor, with Texas “forced” to use its old map, “which means they get no additional seats.”

California, on the other hand, does not have that same problem, Cervas said, after voters approved Prop 50 on Tuesday last month — a move that will allow the Democratic-controlled legislature to redraw the state’s congressional districts. Gavin Newsom, the state’s Democratic governor, led the charge on the initiative.

Cervas said that the fresh map, because it is not likely change based on court rulings, means California will “almost certainly gain five additional Democratic seats.”

He added that, while Missouri and other states may make some gains on the Republican side, they will be “very minimal” compared to California and other blue states. Utah, for example, had a judge recently reject a new congressional map, and it will now use a map next year that has an additional Democratic-leaning district.

The professor, following his bold proclamation above, cautioned a bit, saying “Of course, [the war is] not over” and that there would “likely be “action going on in other states” that could change the narrative.

He also told Abrams that a recent data analysis showed the new maps, if they had been used by California and Texas in prior elections over the past 11 years, showed Democrats would have always gained seats in California, and the same went for Republicans in Texas. That is obviously a loss for Texas conservatives, after its redistricting push was rejected.

“[The] upshot of that is that even in elections where the party does less well than say they did in 2024, they’re still gaining seats,” Cervas said.

Watch above, via SiriusXM and YouTube.