NEW POLL: Trump Felony Conviction Gives Biden Victory By 7-Point Swing

A new NBC News poll showed former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by five points — but showed Biden swinging seven points into the lead if Trump is convicted of a felony.

Trump is under indictment on 34 felony counts in New York, 37 counts stemming from Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into his retention of classified documents under the Espionage Act plus a superseding indictment by Smith on three additional charges against Trump (one additional count of unlawful retention of National Defense Information and two new obstruction counts), another Smith indictment for his attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and the newest indictment of Trump in Georgia on 13 counts related to election crimes.

Those trials are at various stages, but face delays that could imperil their completion before the election. A new NBC News poll shows that could have a big effect on the outcome of the election:

The newest national NBC News poll shows former President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47%-42%, in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

But when the survey’s final question re-asks voters what their ballot choice would be if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly pulls ahead of Trump, 45%-43%.

Some of the most pronounced shifts come among voters who backed Biden strongly in 2020, but among whom he is struggling now as president — younger voters, Latinos and independents.

On this week’s edition of NBC’s Meet the Press, Steve Kornacki broke down the poll question, and host Kristen Welker noted it’s still “incredibly close” even with a Trump conviction:

STEVE KORNACKI: Trump with a one-point advantage. We’ve been asking, “Would those gains he made four years ago stick?” Our polls suggest they certainly have, and they’ve maybe grown. And we did ask this question, Kristen. “If one of these cases this year ends in a conviction, a felony conviction for former President Trump, would that change your vote?” Forty-five percent said in that scenario, they’d vote for Biden. Forty-three percent for Trump. This is also something the Biden campaign, obviously hoping for, although there’s a long history is polling of asking folks about hypotheticals –

KRISTEN WELKER: Yeah.

STEVE KORNACKI: – and them actually reacting a little differently when it actually happens.

KRISTEN WELKER: A little bit of a game changer but still incredibly close.

STEVE KORNACKI: Very.

Watch above via NBC’s Meet the Press.