SHOCK POLL: GOP Closing the Gap With Democrats in Latest Midterm Poll

(AP Photo/Rod Lamkey, Jr.)

A new survey from The Economist and YouGov indicates that Republicans are closing the gap with Democrats ahead of this November’s midterm elections.

History would suggest that the latter boasts a considerable advantage over the former as the GOP presently controls both the White House and both chambers of Congress, and incumbent parties tend to struggle in the midterms. Previous incarnations of the Economist/YouGov poll backed up that theory. One survey from February found that Democrats boasted a seven-point lead over Republicans on the “generic ballot” question, “If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?” Another from May suggested that Democrats’ lead had slipped to five points.

But in this latest poll of 1,549 American adults (1,402 of which were registered voters) conducted between June 13 and 15, Republicans trailed Democrats by just three points (39%-36%) among the former, larger group and two points (46%-44%) among the latter, smaller one.

Such a result could yield a House of Representatives in which Republicans continue to hold a majority.

The YouGov poll isn’t the only foreboding one for Democrats.

A Harvard-HarrisX poll of 2,745 registered voters conducted in April found that 50% of those surveyed indicated they’d vote for their local Democrat, while the other 50% said they bled red. Democrats boasted a 52%-48% advantage with independents. All in all, 71% of respondents aid they were “definitely” or “probably” going to vote, but Republicans boasted a slight advantage in that regard. Sixty-two percent of Republican respondents indicated they were definitely going to vote, and an additional 18% said they’d probably vote. For Democrats, those figures were 59% and 17%, while for independents, they were 40% and 17%.

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