Shock Poll Right Before Lindsey Graham’s Death Showed Him in Tight Battle With Democratic Challenger

AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

A shocking poll by a progressive research firm showed Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) was in a tight battle with his Democratic challenger in the upcoming midterm elections shortly before he died Saturday at the age of 71.

Impact Research put out a poll on June 30 that Graham held a narrow 3-point lead on Dr. Annie Andrews (D), which was within the survey’s expected margin of error. It’s a remarkably close number for a state that backed Donald Trump by 18 points in 2024.

“Graham only narrowly leads in a head-to-head ballot,” the report said. “Senator Graham starts out below 50%, with a +3 lead overall (45% Andrews / 48% Graham / 7% und), and Graham trails by 22 points among Independents. This continues the tight trajectory we found in March polling, when the race was then at a 5-point margin. Annie Andrews is nudging the needle in her direction, even despite Graham’s early spend to try and save his seat.”

The poll prompted the progressive firm to encourage “national investment” in Andrews, writing, “Any race with an incumbent polling this low and tight is an opportunity for Democrats – and now Graham is on the ballot in a potential wave year without Trump on the ballot to boost GOP turnout. With the proper resources to both defend her values and highlight Lindsey’s weaknesses, we believe Dr. Annie Andrews will put this seat in play and is worth national investment.”

Though the survey was conducted by a partisan outfit, many experts generally consider Impact Research credible. Nate Silver rated them a B/C pollster, with a pro-Democrat bias of only 1.32 points on average. Even accounting for the partisan lean, it is a stunning finding to have a senate race in a Trump +18 state within the margin of error.

At the time of his death, Graham had been gearing up for the fight, having just defeated his primary challenger, Greenville businessman Mark Lynch.

Republicans will now need to replace Graham’s name on the November ballot by holding a special primary election in mid-August.

According to Politico, “A special candidate filing period will open up on July 21 for Republicans interested in running for Graham’s seat, and will remain open for a week, according to state law and the state Republican Party. A primary would be held on August 11, with a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent of the vote on Aug. 25.”

“The winner of that contest will face Andrews in November for a full, six-year term that would start in January of next year,” the report added.

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