Republicans Hold 10-Point Edge in Pennsylvania’s 6 Most Competitive House Districts: Monmouth Poll
President Donald Trump is closing in on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, according to a new Monmouth University survey, while Republican congressional candidates in the state are performing even better.
Among registered voters in Pennsylvania, Monmouth found Biden leading Trump by 49 percent to 45 percent, with an even tighter race among likely voters. Authors said Biden received support from between 48 to 49 percent of that group, depending on voter turnout, while Trump’s support stood between 46 and 47 percent.
Trump won the state in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote, compared to 47.5 percent for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Republicans last won the state in a presidential election in 1988.
The numbers were even better for Republicans in competitive congressional districts. Monmouth found that in the state’s six most competitive districts, Republican House candidates were leading by 10 points, with support from 50 percent of voters compared to 40 percent who said they supported Democrats.
Three of those seats were won by Republicans in 2018 by margins of 2 to 4 percent. Democrats won the other seats by margins of 9 to 12 percent.
The poll indicated a gender gap in support for the presidential candidates, with Trump leading Biden among men by 56 percent to 37 percent. Among women, Biden leads with 59 percent support to 35 percent for Trump.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, attributed tightening in the race over the last month to violent unrest around the nation.
“About 1 in 6 Democrats who actually agree with the GOP’s warning of a threat to the suburbs say they will vote for Trump,” Murray said. “Now, this group represents a fairly small proportion of the total electorate, but it is still large enough to make a difference in a very close election.”
Murray added: “This is really a game of inches. The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed.”
The survey was conducted between August 28-31, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
Watch coverage of the poll above via MSNBC.
