Karl Rove’s Electoral Map Shows Obama With A Solid Lead Over Romney

Karl Rove‘s out with the first installment of his 2012 electoral map. And as of now, he’s not painting a pretty picture for Mitt Romney.

First off, here’s the map:

As seen in the map, votes solidly for President Obama or “leaning Obama” add up to 284 — versus Romney’s total of 172. That leaves 82 as a toss-up. As it stands, it obviously shows Romney lagging behind significantly. As Brett LoGiurato points out over at Business Insider (emphasis his): “According to this map, even if Romney wins all the toss-up states of Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida — which could be done — he still wouldn’t beat Obama.”

South Carolina’s a toss up, seriously? Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that Rove’s predictions have been pretty accurate in the past. As Dave Weigel (and others) observes, “In 2008, his week-to-week update of the electoral college map was spot-on, and correctly calculated the margin John McCain would lose by.”

UPDATE: Rove addressed the topic of toss-up states. Earlier, he directed readers to his polling notes, adding that we should keep an eye on undecided states, as there’s “a good chance” they’ll shift to “lean Romney.” He reached out with the following comment, which is certainly worth noting: “Look for ‘lean Obama’ states to shift to ‘lean Romney.’ Very early & scarce polling in some states (SC latest poll 12/6)!”

(H/T Business Insider)

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