Final Marist, CNN Polls Show Kamala Harris Squeaking Out Electoral College Win — Nate Silver And Others Tip Race to Trump
Election forecaster Nate Silver posted on X Friday that the final NPR/Marist poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the crucial “blue wall” states keeps the presidential race competitive, according to his model.
“Reassuring polls for Harris in the sense that the race is likely to remain toss-up-ish. Unless the final NYT/Siena state polls all tilt in the same direction I guess,” Silver wrote.
The Marist poll found Harris up 3 points on Trump in Michigan and leading by 2 points in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The pollster’s final results for other swing states showed Georgia and Nevada as tied, while Trump led by 1 point in Arizona and 2 points in North Carolina. If Marist’s polls were to be the outcome of the election, Harris would sneak out a 270 Electoral College vote win without winning either state that is tied.
Silver’s model, meanwhile, still tips Trump as the favorite to win the election as he leads in Pennsylvania in the polling aggregate.
CNN/SSRS’s final polling results would have Harris winning with 278 electoral college votes, without Pennsylvania – where is she tied with Trump in the poll.
Below are some additional pollsters’ final maps, according to InteractivePolls on X:
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