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Romney Leads Cain! Cain Leads Romney! Confusion Reigns Supreme In Polls

by Nando Di Fino | 9:57 am, October 13th, 2011

» 45 comments

(Photo: James-Boylan.com)

By the time you finish reading this sentence, another poll will have been released. And this poll will likely be touting the opposite result of the previous poll. And in a little while, both of those polls will be rendered obsolete by a third poll. Do you know who’s in the lead for the Republican nomination? No. Nobody does. Because a sea of Rasmussens, Quinnipiacs, Gallups, and Marists have combined to give us a steady diet of polls that provide little more than a long list of conflicting headlines.

Take a look at just this week’s polling results roundup on Real Clear Politics. On Monday, a Gallup poll had Mitt Romney ahead of Herman Cain by two points, while a Washington Post/Bloomberg poll had Romney ahead by eight. On Tuesday, Public Policy Polling had Cain leading Romney by eight percentage points in Iowa. That same day, NBC News/Marist had Romney ahead in Iowa by six. Wednesday, PPP had Cain up eight in the general election, while Reuters/Ipsos had Romney up by four. And on Thursday, a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll said Cain is ahead by the same four percentage points. (As an aside, remarkably, in the WSJ/NBC poll, when asked which candidate they favor, 27% said Cain. He was at 5% in August. And Rick Perry, now at 16%, was at 38% in August).

Margins of error hover in the 4-6% range, but it’s still a mess of methodology and cross-sectioning. Plus, asking someone over the phone who they’re going to vote for — and if they’re even going to vote — could all come crashing down based on something as trivial as rain on election day.

But even the weather may not have anything to do with polls aiming poorly. Two years ago, for instance, likely New York City voters were polled just days before the election, and most results had Michael Bloomberg crushing his opponent, Bill Thompson, by as many as 15 percentage points, even as the Thompson campaign said its internal polls showed a much closer race. On election day, Bloomberg squeaked by with a much tighter victory than he expected, winning by just five percentage points, 51% to 46%.

What does it all mean? That, thanks to the myriad polls popping up on a daily basis, CNN can put up a headline that says “Cain Leads Romney!” while FOX can say “Romney Leads Cain!” And this could be on the same day. Eventually, people may start getting wise to the conflicting polls and just start ignoring them. A worry in the Bloomberg aftermath was that because the Mayor led by such a wide margin, some would-be Thompson voters stayed home, already feeling defeated. That’s not necessarily the case anymore. And it shouldn’t act as a deterrent in any future elections. Ron Paul, for instance, might be polling at about 11%, but add the margin of error to his numbers, subtract the margin of error from Romney’s, factor in that Paul voters are incredibly motivated and mobile, meaning they’ll likely come out for primaries and caucuses in force… and you may have a number much closer that any poll would indicate.

Nate Silver made a name for himself — at least outside of baseball circles — in pointing out the errors in polls. It’s not like this is a new concept. But it seems like this year, more than in 2004 and 2008, the polls are popping up with much more frequency, and far less accuracy. Chalk it up to a still-fluid situation and a possibly-truncated polling season before the first primaries start taking place, but the more polls that are released, the more maddening they become. If Edgar Allan Poe were alive today, there’s a good chance his increasingly-fervent “Bells” would be replaced by the increasingly-frustrating “Polls.”

Edgar Allan Poe, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Polls, Rick Perry

Anonymous

The MSM needs polls on Rep candidates so they know who to attack that day .
http://pulse.yahoo.com/_B5344MYI6BXUL36ADKK3JBTPJA GJPinks

1. Still early and commitment is in flux I can change my choice at any moment
2. Methodology of the sample (including weighting of the results)
3. Who youare polling: general – registered – likely – Republican/Democrat
4. Pollster bias (yes they all have a bias)
5. Public distrust of being polled (growing)
Anonymous

Well, I suppose for a short we have two front runners in the lead, at the same time.

…Used to be called a tie.

Until an actual voting is made, how much does it matter?
GEORGE_W_TUSH

If a tree falls in the woods it would still be a better candidate than Mitt Romney
Anonymous

Bradly effect at its extremest anyone?
Exgoper

The polls go up and the polls go down. But two things seem to be consistent:

1. Mitt is the pick of only one quarter of Republicans and no matter what he does he can’t seem to improve on that.

2. The more people get to know the new Anti-Mitt, the more their poll numbers crash. (Just ask Trump, Palin, Bachmann and Perry. Even Gingrich and Paul have had modest spurts, only to see their numbers sink as they gained attention.)
http://mediamatters.org/ Leedog

It’s a revolving-door when it comes to these Republicon nominees!! Next month the Republicon nominee in the lead will be ‘Jersey Shore’s’ Snooki!!

http://images.politico.com/global/click/100610_snooki_ap_392_regular.jpg
HowardNY

They could do a lot worse. (In fact, they probably will.)
Aizen

Some my conservative friends seem to think Cain is the new anti-Romney, even though he’s made some really troubling comments (Alan Greenspan, seriously?) and his 999 Plan has its major problems. I hope, for the sake of the party, they don’t just support Cain because they think the media will go all out on the Uncle Tom stuff, believing it’ll backfire and help the party win.
Anonymous

…That’s just mean!
Anonymous

Don’t worry Herb won’t be the nominee. The media hasn’t said a thing about any Uncle Tom stuff but Cain continues to interject race and bring it up at every opportunity.
Anonymous

what is it with the fingers?
Anonymous

Does it matter who’s leading who? None of the candidates are strong enough to take on Obama, and I even say that as someone who is really not terribly crazy about the dude. He could be found standing over a dead kid, with bloody knife in hand, saying the voices in his head told him to do it, and he’s still beat any of these clowns. Unless the GOP can pull a candidate from out of nowhere, complete with golden halo, they have no chance. And anyone who thinks that Romney can really go head to head with Obama is completely deluded. Even the most staunch republicans have to know that these guys are total losers, one and all.
Anonymous

I think they are chiding you.
Anonymous

Once people actually look at the 999 thing, Cain will be toast.
Anonymous

Repubs are rushing this stuff way too fast. Debate every three days?
Push primaries up to December, this year and January next year?
They are going to hate themselves when they get stuck with Romney.
Why rush a bad thing?
Anonymous

Do you ever look at polls which say otherwise?
Anonymous

Do you even know who Herb Caen was?
Anonymous

It’s called a tie guys, whats the problems?
Anonymous

Oh,

I thought it was “smell my finger”
Anonymous

I thought Trump was the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Why else did journalists at Mediaite run more articles on Trump during 2011 than on any other “political” figure? Of course, I use the term “political” loosely. “Journalist” too.

But the question is easy to answer: liberal journalism is built on making jokes….and when the Left looks at Romney, they stop laughing.
Anonymous

Sarah Palin’s (TM) favorite for the Republican nomination as of now.

(yes I do Herb Caen was a San Francisco newspaper columnist. The joke is on SP.)
Nature Freak

Neither Cain nor Romney need to worry about Rick Perry anymore. Perry’s POTUS campain is now in serious crash and burn mode.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2011/10/anita-perry-husband-rick-perry.html

WTF, Anita Perry! Talk about a Hail Mary pass (I realize the Perry’s may object to that term. And to the Catholic church position on Mary. Oh well.)
God has apparently anointed Rick Perry. Rick Santorum must be burning with envy!
Anonymous

Polls don’t mean anything at all…the public is fickle up until it’s actually time to vote. Once they’re in the booth, and it comes time to decide, that’s when cold-blooded sanity comes into it. Can you imagine President Romney? Or President Cain? Just doesn’t sound right.
Exgoper

Three of the GOP candidates claim that God has called them to serve. Obviously someone — probably all of them — are lying.
Anonymous

Fact: even a GOP candidate at 1% is 1% ahead of Obama!
Anonymous

What it sounds like has no relevance to anything. I understand that you don’t like the sound of those because you don’t want either of them elected. They sound perfectly OK to me.
Anonymous

Cain and Romney change back and forth but in all polls Perry and Bachmann keep dropping.
Anonymous

I’m for any R that can beat that pig Obama.
Anonymous

Fact: Funny how Christains get hit by MSMLSD in America now!
Anonymous

Fact: All of them will have a role in the new GOP leadership after the new GOP president takes over in 2013!
IJustH8theFax

Fact: Funny how Fox News invokes God all the time, even though there’s no evidence of His existence!
IJustH8theFax

Fact: With every post I sound more unstable! It’s a fact!
IJustH8theFax

Fact: I have no clue what I meant by that comment, but that sure didn’t stop me from writing it! It’s a fact!
Pious Jeffy

So, you and a few other gNOpigs are going to stay at home on 2012 election day.

GREAT!
Anonymous

Even if the Republican does win a year from now, the others will not be offered VP. It doesn’t work that way any more.
http://www.chuckbartok.com Chuck Bartok

Why? Because EVERYONE will be paying a share into the pot for all to receive…That is a strange concept.
Almost weird that we could get rid of the generations of Entitlement and let everyone have a Dog in the Hunt
http://www.chuckbartok.com Chuck Bartok

Again, where does the 999 plan have flaws? Because it allows EVERYONE to pay into a system? Sound fair to me if you expect to benefit form Government programs
Anonymous

That computer you are using just cost you 9% more. Another $100 dollars? More? A little less?
Your car. Your clothing. Your food? Everything you own or will buy in the future costs YOU 9% more so a bunch of millionaires get a tax CUT?
If you are down with that I’ll take 9% of your income right now, and give it to a charity for you. How about the Koch brothers’ favorite political action committee?
Anonymous

Nothing could destroy what is left of our economy faster than a 9% national sales tax.

How can the Teapublicans not see that?

Just how hooked on that heroin you call tea can you get?
Anonymous

The flaw is not that it allows everyone to pay in. The flaw is that everything costs you and me 9% more, and you and I still pay income tax ON TOP OF THAT. Your income tax will not go down enough to make up for what the extra National Sales Tax would cost you, so YOUR taxes go UP, while Cain’s taxes go WAY DOWN.

It is a fantastic plan for him and all the other millionaires who are running for president right now.
Anonymous

On second thought, it was “Pull my finger.”
Anonymous

The Lefties are taking over the world!

I mean left handed!

We are doomed! Doomed, I say!
Anonymous

Looks like God has a sense of humor.
Anonymous

yeah you’re right
that is all they talk about
penis and poop