Rep. Peter Welch Becomes 17th House Democrat to Announce He Will Not Run for Re-Election in 2022

Vermont Rep. Peter Welch (D) announced Monday he was retiring from the House of Representatives, making him the 17th Democrat to announce his departure from the chamber before the 2022 midterm elections.

Welch said in a video posted to YouTube that he was leaving to pursue the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who announced this month that he was stepping down after 46 years in the position. Welch’s departure increases the total number of House Democrats who have said they will retire to 17 — nearly doubling the 10 Republicans who have announced they will not be running for reelection.

The retirements have put Democrats in an increasingly tough position to claim the chamber when it reconvenes in 2023. They presently hold an eight-seat majority over Republicans, 221-213, meaning Democrats must prevent Republicans from flipping five seats in order to retain their majority.

Other Democrats who have announced their departures include Reps. Conor Lamb (PA), Charlie Crist (FL), Ron Kind (WI), and Tim Ryan (D), each of whom represent districts where their personal popularity has played a key role in running successful reelection campaigns.

Republicans who have announced retirement, by contrast, hail from relatively safe districts for their party, including Reps. Mo Brooks (MO), Billy Long (MO), and Vicky Hartzler (MO), each of whom is leaving to run for the Senate. The seat held by Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), which is likely to flip in Democrats’ favor after redistricting, represents the most notable exception.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found 46 percent of Americans saying they wanted Republicans to win control of the House in 2022, while 38 percent said they favored Democrats. A FiveThirtyEight forecast released the same week found Republicans enjoyed a 42.4 percent of winning the chamber, while Democrats stood at 42.1 percent. That publication significantly overestimated Democrats’ odds in 2020, giving them 90 percent odds to win by more than the 222 seats they carried in that election.