Martin Bashir’s Panel Engages In Self-Delusion About Obama’s Reelection Prospects

…Okay. Let’s argue facts.

The consumer confidence index, an imperfect but nevertheless helpful indicator of general satisfaction with the economy, is dismal. Down to 70.2 from 71.6 in February, the index is at its consistently lowest point outside of a recession (periods shaded in grey) since it was developed in the 1970s. In 1980, when President Jimmy Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan, the index hovered at around 60 points. Presidents Reagan and Bill Clinton won reelection on a 40 point bounce in the index over their first terms – Obama can count a similar bounce in his first term out. Vice President Al Gore, however, despite being a member of the incumbent party, lost election in 2000 despite having the index skyrocket to 140 points.

President Obama’s strategy of highlighting Republican’s supposed animus against women and minorities in a variety of way has had a tremendous buoying effect on the president’s poll numbers. An ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Mitt Romney trailing President Obama with 51 to 43 percent of the vote. A USA Today/Gallup poll from March 25 – 26 and an Investor’s Business Daily poll from March 30 – April 5 echoed those findings. Obama was up over Romney by unassailable margins.

But events of the last week, however, showed just how tenuous and ephemeral of the support generated by employing this tactic. A Fox News poll from April 9 to 11 showed Romney regaining the lead, albeit within the margin of error. Rasmussen Reports and Gallup’s inaugural daily tracking poll found the same results.

Polls from the last several weeks point to several conclusions – one, that polls this far out from the general election are near meaningless and a candidate’s advantage one week is fleeting and can be upended the next. A weak jobs report – under 120,000 new private sector jobs on April 6 (accompanied by a drop in the unemployment rate rendering the whole seasonally adjusted index suspect) – combined with nearly a week’s coverage of Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen’s comments that seemed to contradict the “war on women” narrative were the focus of the last week’s news. These two stories alone, amidst historically high gas prices for this time of year, may have been enough to shift several points of support from Obama to Romney.

This is not so much great news for Romney, as his support is as fleeting as Obama’s, but it is bad news for the incumbent president who should have firmer levels of support at this stage in his reelection campaign – let alone his presidency.

Even in that particularly favorable ABC News/Washington Post poll, which sampled 23 percent Republican self-identifiers to 34 percent Democratic self-identifiers, showed the president is dangerously weak on what are likely to be the real motivating factors for swing voters come November. On gas prices, the president received 28 to 62 percent disapproval ratings. 76 percent of respondents believed that the nation still suffers under a recession. In head-to-head matchups on issues, respondents gave Romney stronger marks on issues like “handling the economy” and “handling the federal budget deficit.”

As for the president’s job approval ratings, the single most important factor determining Obama’s reelection prospects, 2012 has been good to the president. He rebounded dramatically in January, but the president’s highest approval rating in the last four months is a whopping 53 percent – and that probably represents an outlier. What’s more, the past three summers of the Obama presidency have also brought on a precipitous drop in his approval ratings. With gas prices likely to continue their increase and without a substantial bump in private sector job creation, the president’s job approval ratings are unlikely to bounce significantly barring events.

Gas prices will drop in the mid-fall and the economy may accelerate faster than the experts predict, giving the president time to rebound. But it could be too late for Obama unless these changes in fortune occur before or a few weeks after Labor Day. Low information and swing voters who tune into the race in the early fall will have their minds largely made up about the incumbent president by October. It is unlikely that a world-changing event, like the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008, will overturn conventional wisdom again this cycle (although anything is possible).

Of course, a major foreign affairs event could turn things around for Obama or two or three consecutive months of 300,000+ private sector job growth reports could be just around the corner. But, as far as Ms. Ball’s and Messrs. Dyson and Bashir’s facts are concerned, the president is in real and demonstrable trouble.

Watch the segment below via MSNBC:

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!