America Now Identifies As More Republican Than Democrat After 14-Point Swing Toward the GOP in 2021: Gallup
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An analysis of America’s political trends shows that Democrats lost the advantage they had in 2021 — with the country now identifying as more Republican than Democrat.
A new Gallup survey tracked the party affiliations of Americans throughout 2021. In the 1st quarter of the year, Gallup found that 49 percent of America leaned towards the Democrats while 40 percent favored the GOP — giving the Democrats their strongest advantage in the Gallup poll since 2012.
While the data remained steady for Democrats in the 2nd quarter of 2021, their slice of the electorate went down to 45 percent by the 3rd quarter, while Republicans went up to 44 percent. And by the 4th quarter, Democrats were down to 42 percent while the Republicans overtook them at 47 percent. In all, the poll tracked 14 point negative shift for Democrats through the year.
“Both the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991,” said Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones. “The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s.”
Gallup notes that the shift correlates with the approval ratings of the heads of both parties. Donald Trump’s presidency ended with low approval, which put the GOP behind in the early part of the year. And Joe Biden started his term with high approval ratings, but they fell throughout the year — between the U.S.’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, economic woes, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
Much of the shift is connected to the political mood of independents according to the data — though Gallup included the caveat that their December estimates are roughly even, with 46 percent Republican lean to the 44 percent among the Democrats.
