Nate Silver Says Trump Still Has Just a 7% Chance of Winning


Nate Silver said the FiveThirtyEight odds of a Joe Biden victory in the 2020 presidential election are still at 90% — right where they were at the start of Election Night before polls closed. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has a 7% chance of re-election.

A number of outlets have called Florida for Trump and Arizona for Biden — both key battleground states.

On ABC News early Wednesday morning, the editor of FiveThirtyEight said “Joe Biden still has a few paths for victory,” including winning Arizona (which ABC has not yet called) and Georgia (which no outlet has called). Trump, meanwhile, has “to win every path.”

“It’s leaning Biden at this point,” Silver said. “Ironically we kind of wind up about where we were at the start of the night, where if you were putting odds on it you might say Trump has a 1 in 10 chance or something.”

“After everything where we’ve gone through tonight we’re still about where we started?” ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos asked.

Silver noted that Trump won Florida by a bigger margin than in 2016, but that Biden is leading in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden’s win in Minnesota is good news for Biden in Wisconsin, where Trump still has a lead though the remaining votes are likely to be “very blue.”

While Biden is also behind in Pennsylvania, the remaining mail vote is also very blue. Silver said the state will probably be the last to decide.

Watch above, via ABC News.

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Aidan McLaughlin is the Editor of Mediaite. Send tips via email: Ask for Signal. Follow him on Twitter: @aidnmclaughlin