CNN Data Guru Dumps Cold Water on Nancy Mace’s Odds of Winning Senate Seat After Lindsey Graham’s Death

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten explained Monday why Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) didn’t have much of a chance to win the Senate seat previously occupied by Lindsey Graham.

Graham, 71, died Saturday from what was initially described as a “sudden illness.” Hours later, the preliminary cause of death was determined to be “aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease.” In short, Graham developed a tear in the inner layer of a major artery.

According to the Mayo Clinic, there are just 5-30 cases of the condition per 1 million people each year.

Shortly after the news of Graham’s death, Mace indicated on Fox News that she was considering running for Graham’s seat.

“I’m never going to shut the door,” Mace said. “I love the state of South Carolina. You only live once, and you know, if the people of South Carolina would like me to serve in that capacity, I’ll certainly take a look at it. But right now, I just want to focus on him and his legacy.”

Enten broke down why Mace’s prospects weren’t very good, saying:

Yeah, I would say Nancy Mace is probably the biggest name, at least to a national audience, considering running in this special primary. And you know what? At this point, I don’t see the math there for Nancy Mace. Look, early returns are saying the math isn’t there. Chance to win the South Carolina special GOP primary. This prediction market is Kalshi. You could see it right here: the lieutenant governor [Pamela Evette] at a 40% chance in the early stakes. And of course, this is still early. Then, you got Ralph Norman, who’s of course the congressman — 32%. Russell Fry, 17%. You got [Mark Lynch] there at 7%. And Nancy Mace, all the way down here at 4%. So despite being well known nationally, at this point anyway, the people who are putting their money where their mouths are don’t give Nancy Mace much of a chance to win that nomination.

CNN’s John Berman then noted the fact that Mace just ran for governor of the state. Enten claimed the poor results from that endeavor were a sign that she wasn’t as popular in South Carolina as some might’ve thought.

“Statewide, she just got 12% of the vote!” Enten said. “She came in fifth place — in fifth place — for the primary; and even in her home county of Charleston, what she’d get? She got 15%. She only came in third place in her home county. That is why Nancy Mace’s chances are so low. It’s because we just did this back in June.”

Watch above via CNN

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