Republicans Gain Ground on Democrats Heading Into 2026 Midterms, New Washington Post Poll Reveals

(AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Republicans have cut into the lead Democrats have heading into the 2026 midterms, according to the latest Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

The new poll showed Democrats have a 48% to 45% edge on Republicans among registered voters — which means the GOP has sliced into the five point edge Dems had the last time the poll was released in May.

Dems have a bigger lead among voters “absolutely certain to vote,” with a 53% to 45% cushion. But the Republicans have made up a little bit of ground there as well, after the Democrats had a nine point edge two months ago.

One issue for Republicans, though: their voters aren’t as excited to get to the ballot box in November.

Reporters Scott Clement and Gregory S. Schneider wrote, “Republican supporters just aren’t as energized to turn up at the polls, the Post-Ipsos poll suggests. If Trump is able to mitigate some top concerns by Election Day — for example, by bringing down the price of gasoline or ending the war with Iran — then his push to draw new congressional districts in red states could be enough to retain the GOP majority in the House.”

They added:

The Post-Ipsos survey offers mixed signs for Democrats compared with the polling ahead of the 2018 midterm in Trump’s first term, when Democrats gained 40 House seats in a blue wave.

That year, Democrats had a 10-point lead in support for Congress in Post-ABC polls of registered voters, compared with Democrats’ three-point edge this month. But the enthusiasm gap is greater now.

Saturday’s poll also showed most Americans are not thrilled with President Donald Trump’s leadership on the Iran war, with 29% approving of “the situation with Iran” and 69% disapproving.

(Screenshot via WaPo-Ipsos poll)

The poll’s release coincided with the news two U.S. soldiers died in an Iranian strike on a military base in Jordan. Respondents said the most important issue to them was the economy — with 54% of respondents listing it as their first or second-biggest concern; immigration was second, with 28%, and the Iran war was third with 20%.

As for the Dems, victories by several democratic socialist candidates in recent primaries had some liberals worried. Bill Maher vented that the Democrats would “blow” the midterms if they embrace the “crazy” socialists, and James Carville urged congressional Democrats to shun any socialists who enter Congress.

The WaPo-Ipsos poll was conducted between July 8-13 and had 2,648 respondents.

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