NEW POLL: Trump Beats Ron DeSantis in 2024 Primary — IF Nikki Haley is Spoiler
AP Photo/Meg Kinnard
In the 2024 GOP Primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beats ex-president Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, but loses when former Gov. Nikki Haley is added in a new YouGov poll on the hypothetical contests.
Trump has recently unloaded full force on Florida’s popular governor and rising GOP contender, but has been more muted in criticism of Haley, another likely rival. In fact he sort of encouraged her to run, backhanded though it may have been. And that could be because, like in 2016, Trump benefits by splitting the anti-Trump vote.
Unlike other contenders for the nomination in 2016 and in the upcoming election, Trump’s role as uniquely polarizing puts him in the position of being his candidacy versus the split loyalty of the anti-Trump vote between strong opponents. Normally a primary is every campaign vs every campaign, even with stronger candidates leading the field. But in polling the GOP primary is splitting along a singular fault line: Trump vs. Not Trump.
So strong contenders for Not Trump such as Haley and DeSantis are dividing voters while stealing none from the strongly pro-Trump voters. In other words, it’s his half all to himself while the other half faces a Lord of the Flies battle royale.
A new YouGov poll from Yahoo! spells it out in numbers.
They write:
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that in a head-to-head matchup, more Republican voters would cast their ballots for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (45%) than for former President Donald Trump (41%) if the party’s 2024 presidential primary were held today.
Yet if even one additional Republican candidate challenges Trump and DeSantis for the nomination, splitting the party’s “anti-Trump” vote, the former president would take the lead.
DeSantis has bested Trump head-to-head in multiple polls as the 2024 horse race heats up. Though he has not declared he will run, Trump sees him as enough of a threat that he’s already making spurious, odious accusations to head him off, as was his trademark campaign move in 2016.
In that 2016 primary the mainstream press found some fascination and amusement in Trump’s destructive politics when it was directed at Republican colleagues. It’s possible that in post-January 6 politics it won’t seem quite so novel and entertaining to reporters and anchors.
