Nate Silver: Biden Arizona Win Would Erase ‘Bad News’ For Democrats And Make ‘Trump Underdog Again’

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said that if Vice President Joe Biden wins Arizona — a state he’s leading in and that Fox News has called in favor of the Democrat — that President Donald Trump is an “underdog” again.

After Trump was projected to win Florida, Silver said the victory was the “first step toward a Trump upset.” Trump’s chances of victory also have over performed pre-election polling. While Silver and ABC News have not called Arizona yet, Fox News has. In 2016, Trump won the state and its 11 electoral votes by three points.

“If we can speculate a bit,” Silver said showing a map with Biden winning Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. “What happens if Donald Trump wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, but Biden wins Arizona? We actually think it’s a decent map for Joe Biden. He’s an 85% favorite. There’s also the chance of an electoral college tie.”

The 269-269 map is now in play with the potential Biden victory in Arizona, and if it happens in the unlikely chance, the vote would move to the House of Representatives. Still, Silver didn’t want to dive into that scenario right away.

“Trump can win Pennsylvania, get to 268,” Silver speculated. “That would not be enough. It would come down to the second congressional district in Omaha, Nebraska or the one in Upstate Maine. If Arizona goes Biden, that really reverses not all the bad news that Democrats got earlier in the evening, but makes Trump an underdog again.”

“We are looking at a lot of photo finishes,” Silver concluded. “And in a photo finish, Arizona becomes a important state.”

Watch above, via ABC.