CNN Data Guru Dumps Ice Cold Water on Democrats’ Senate Hopes: ‘The Math, Simply Put, Isn’t There’

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten dropped some bad news on Democrats, breaking down the simple “math problem” that could keep them from gaining control of the Senate in the midterms.

Enten joined CNN’s John Berman on Wednesday morning to go through new polling from The New York Times and Siena College on Senate races where Democrats are hoping to flip seats and turn around control of the upper chamber of Congress. Democrats need a net gain of four to take the lead over Republicans.

Enten argued, however, that the math simply isn’t on Democrats’ side at the moment.

“Democrats need a net gain of four four senate seats to regain control of the upper chamber in congress. And right now, the math, simply put, isn’t there for them. That is the picture. It’s a math problem,” Enten said.

According to the Times/Siena survey, there is no clear leader in a number of key races except North Carolina, where Democrats are up by seven points in the Senate race. In Texas, polling shows a tie, and Republicans are slightly up (by two or three points) in Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio.

“That gets you one seat. But, of course, you need four seats. And on this board, red, red, red, close races, and a tie. You’re at one. You’re not yet to four,” Enten said.

“I mean, the good news for Democrats might be they’re close in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio. But again, it needs to be four of these that are blue in order for them to retake it,” observed Berman, noting at one point he expected better numbers for Democrats amid the ongoing Iran conflict and inflation concerns.

Enten also highlighted the Maine Senate battle between Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Democratic candidate Graham Platner. In that race there is also no clear leader. The Times has polling with Platner leading by two among likely voters, while a Fox News survey on all voters has Collins slightly ahead.

“On the mathematical march to four seats, there’s really only one seat at this point that Democrats look like they can count on. They probably win one of these other seats. But again, that gets you only to two and you need four,” Enten said.

He also noted that all of these states, aside from Maine, are red states where polling shows more than 50% believe the Democratic Party is too far left.

“So these are states that are just very hard to win because bottom line is what is holding them back? What is holding them back is the fundamentals,” Enten said.

Democrats, he added, have a “shot,” but the road to regaining control of the Senate is steeper than some believe.

“Look, Democrats have a shot here. There are seats on the table, but the fundamentals are against them… The mathematical problem is there for Democrats at this point. They, simply put, have a statistical math problem,” Enten said.

Watch above via CNN.

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