America Needs to Come to Terms With the Real Possibility That Former President Trump Goes to Jail — If We Can

Photo by Allison Bailey/NurPhoto via AP

As the criminal charges against former President Donald Trump grow to 91 (so far), the odds that he serves prison time are more likely than ever before.

Will he serve time? No one knows, but the previously unthinkable concept that the United States could imprison a former president has never been part of the national discussion. And given the events of the past few weeks, months, and years, it’s about time we come to terms with that potential reality.

Some are taking it seriously, but many of them seem to be the same people who have been making the same, dumb “orange man in an orange jumpsuit” commentary since 2017. For most of us, this feels strangely disconnected from reality, like we are instead watching some sort of roman à clef Netflix series and not real life historically unfolding before our eyes.

Imprisoning political opponents is has long been a hallmark of small-minded authoritarian rulers in fascist or theocratic nations. The United States proudly abhors such persecutions because we are a constitutional federal republic with a long history of stable government.

Yet the charges against Trump are unprecedented. He faces four separate indictments, ranging from the relatively trivial hush money payment scheme to the gravely serious classified documents case to the existential threat of his attempt to steal a free and fair election. (What’s more: of the many crimes Trump is accused of doing, even his defenders rarely claim he didn’t do them. Trump committed many of his worst offenses in public view.)

We’ve never seen charges like these against a former president because we’ve never seen a former president so freely flout the long-accepted norms of how the commander-in-chief is supposed to behave. Elect a disruptor who flouts decorum, and decorum he will flout, even to an allegedly criminal coup-like level.

I have long been skeptical that we’d ever get to this point. But for the first time since Trump refused to appear at the inauguration ceremony of President Joe Biden, marking the peaceful transfer of power that should follow every democratic election, Trump being put behind bars feels like a real possibility.

How will the nation prepare for such a thing? Can the nation prepare for such a thing? I don’t pretend to have the answers to these questions, but they are ones we should start discussing — because things could get bad quickly.

Trump has an extremely loyal base of supporters, some as fervent in their support of their leader as any extremist supporting the Ayatollah in Iran. When Trump invented a crackpot theory that the 2020 election was stolen from him, thousands of his supporters stormed the Capitol in furtherance of that claim. Defending their leader is a life or death equation, as evidenced by the death threat Judge Tanya Chutkan already received from a woman in Texas.

Not only are Trump supporters prone to violent rioting fueled by the rhetoric of the former president. The Venn diagram of Trump supporters and proud firearms owners of the United States is also worthy of consideration. There is an argument that Trump should be spared from sentencing in order to avert unrest (which, ironically, was not a consideration when Trump and his cronies were trying to steal the election in 2020). But does the threat of violent protest preclude the need for sentencing? Actions have consequences. Play stupid games? Win stupid prizes.

If Trump is found guilty of the more severe charges, he should be held accountable. No one American citizen is above the law, and to suggest any former president should get a legal pass is the very definition of the inane “two tiers of justice” attack on law enforcement currently being deployed by so many Republican leaders and conservative pundits.

This leads me to the rather obvious conclusion on how we can best prepare for a Trump prison sentence. America desperately needs vocal Republican leadership and conservative thought leaders (yes, Fox News prime time hosts) to be honest about Trump’s actions and the legal questions surrounding them. (And yes, MSNBC hosts salivating over this issue does more harm than serving the greater good, but this is not a both-sides issue.)

Despite their brief spurt of bravery following Jan. 6, it is now nearly impossible to imagine House Speaker Kevin McCarthy or Sean Hannity making this pivot, and maybe they won’t have to. Maybe Trump will be found innocent on all 91 charges put forth by Special Counsel Jack Smith, Fulton County DA Fani Willis, and Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg.

The American people certainly don’t believe this is all nonsense: 64% of Americans agree that charges against Trump are serious, and 50% believe he should suspend his campaign.

Suppose conservative media cannot see how potentially grave the situation that may very unfold before us and pivot to supporting the U.S. Justice Department. In that case, the responsibility for any violence, bloodshed, or even death, lays at their feet.

With apologies to Aaron Sorkin’s American President, Andrew Shepherd, it’s long past time for serious leaders to say serious things.

Otherwise, innocent people may very well be seriously injured, or much worse.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.